After Brexit and Trump, is another shock result coming?
According to an artificial intelligence program from investing firm Leonie Hill Capital, Marine Le Pen will become the next President of France.
The system analyzes massive amounts of data, including economic data, polls, media coverage, and social media sentiment.
According to Leonie Hill Capital CEO Arun Kant, Le Pen will win 28% in the first round, and this momentum will leader to a second ballot victory against Independent candidate Emmanuel Macron.
Polls, betting markets disagree forecast Le Pen loss
At this point, Kant’s analysis remains an outlier, as polls and betting markets predict a Le Pen loss. However, the same dynamic was seen in the Brexit victory and Donald Trump’s electoral college win.
In both cases, a candidate/message challenging the entrenched status quo was perceived to be failing to gain the support need to win, and then prevailed in a shocking victory.
Le Pen’s message is similar to that of both Trump and Brexit, as it contrasts nationalism with globalism, and pledges to put citizens first in the eyes of government.
In all three cases, those in the establishment view/viewed a victory for the challengers as unthinkable, and worked hard to make it seem impossible, only to watch it happen anyway.
Le Pen says France should leave the EU
There is growing international attention focused on France’s upcoming election, as it could have a global impact. Marine Le Pen has called for France to leave the European Union, and if that happened it could very well be the death-blow to that organization.
French attitudes towards globalization are highly negative, and there is widespread concern over the perceived dominance Germany has in the EU. Current EU economic policy, emphasizing austerity and anti-growth measures, are not supported in France, and Germany has shown little willingness to listen to French perspectives on the future of EU economic policy.
Whether or not an AI analysis can predict an election remains to be seen. Elections are still highly unpredictable events, as the decisions and choices of millions of voters interact with each other in countless ways.
With that in mind, it is interesting that Le Pen’s chances are being talked down by those who also predicted that Brexit and Trump would lose decisively. It has been a surprising few years in politics, and 2017 may continue that trend when the people of France cast their ballots.
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