POLL: Conservatives Lead Trudeau Liberals 39% To 35%

Trudeau’s net approval rating is now negative according to the survey.

A new poll by Forum Research has surprised many in the Canadian political world.

For only the second time since the 2015 election, Forum Research shows the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals.

Here are the results:

  • Conservatives – 39%
  • Liberals – 35%
  • NDP – 15%
  • Bloc – 5%
  • Green – 4%

The poll contrasts with recent Abacus and Nanos surveys, which have shown the Trudeau Liberals with a lead over the Conservatives. However, Forum Research had a very accurate election forecast in 2015, and is widely regarded as a credible pollster.

More Canadians disapprove of Trudeau

Trudeau’s approval rating has fallen 6 points since Forum’s August poll. His net approval rating is now negative, with 43% approving, and 47% disapproving of his performance.

Scheer’s net approval rating is the same as Trudeau’s, (-4%), but far fewer have formed an opinion about him.

26% approve of Scheer, 30% disapprove, and a full 44% have no opinion.

Tax change impact?

With a large decline in both Trudeau’s approval and overall Liberal support from August to September, the question everyone will be asking is why. Of course, the key change since August is the growing backlash against Trudeau’s tax attack on Canadian small businesses.

The backlash has even included members of Trudeau’s own party, with multiple MPs calling on Trudeau & Moneybags Morneau to make changes.

If this poll is correct, the rising backlash would certainly explain the decline.

Opposition has lots of work to do

While this poll is good news for the Conservatives, they still have much work to do. Trudeau leads in other polls, and Scheer’s overall approval remains low. With nearly half of Canadians having no opinion of him, he is at big risk of being negatively defined if the Liberals unleash a negative ad campaign against him.

With that said, the opposition must continue to keep up a tough and relentless campaign against Trudeau’s failures and deceptions, and Canadian patriots must get out the message as well. After all, if Trudeau’s poll numbers keep falling, it’s only a matter of time before much of the corporate media tries even harder to rescue him.

Spencer Fernando

Read the full Forum Research poll here

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