LEGER POLL: Clear Divide Between Liberal Coasts & The Conservative Heartland

Poll shows Liberals with strong lead on East & West Coasts along with Quebec, while the Conservatives dominate in the heartland, leaving Ontario as the battleground.

A new poll by Leger shows a clear split between opinion on the coasts and the Canadian heartland.

Canada-wide, the poll shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives 40% to 34%, though that number masks huge regional differences.

The Liberals dominate in Atlantic Canada, leading 50% to 24%.

In Quebec, the Liberal lead is even bigger, as they are ahead 47% to 18%.

On the West Coast, the Liberals lead 47% to 27% in B.C.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives dominate the Canadian heartland, leading 58% to 13% over the Liberals in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (NDP is in second place with 16%).

The Conservatives lead the Liberals 52% to 25% in Alberta.

That leaves Ontario as the true electoral battleground, with the Liberals leading 41% to 37%, which is within the poll’s margin of error.

Divided opinion on “satisfaction” with government

The poll also shows Canadians split on satisfaction with the government.

46% say they are satisfied, while 48% say they are not satisfied with the government.

Mirroring the splits noted above, satisfaction is highest in Atlantic Canada and B.C. (54% & 52%), while it’s lowest in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, and Alberta (28% & 31%).

The growing gap between political views in B.C. and Alberta, combined with a rural-urban split in Ontario, appears to show Canadian politics shifting closer to the split we see in the U.S.

The Conservatives dominate the middle of the country and rural areas (outside Quebec), and the Liberals dominate the coasts and urban areas.

If the NDP doesn’t recover their past support and instead get squeezed out, Canada will move to an even more divided political landscape.

Spencer Fernando

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