Liberals Take 3 Out Of 4 Byelections, Conservatives Hold Saskatchewan Seat

Gordie Hogg takes South Surrey—White Rock from Conservatives, defeating Kerry-Lynne Findlay.

The Liberals won 3 out of 4 byelections on Monday, in a night that will raise tough questions for both Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh.

In Bonavista—Burin—Trinity, the Liberals won about 69% of the vote, with the second-place Conservative candidate winning about 23%.

In Scarborough-Agincourt, a seat the Conservatives hoped to steal, the Liberals won about 49%, with the Conservatives near 40.5%.

In Battlefords-Lloydminster, the Conservatives had their one win of the night, pulling in about 70% of the vote, with the NDP in second around 13%.

Finally, in South Surrey—White Rock (a riding previously held by the Conservatives), the Liberals won just over 47%, with the Conservatives close behind around 42%.

While all results are preliminary, there are not enough outstanding polls to change the final results.

Tough night for Scheer, terrible night for Singh

The loss of South Surrey-White Rock, and the failure to pick up Scarborough-Agincourt, will raise some tough questions for Andrew Scheer and the Conservative Party. With Trudeau on the defensive after a rough trip to China, and numerous ethics issues filling the headlines, the Liberals were still able to hold onto their seats and take one away from the Conservatives, showing that their organization and electoral base will not be easily swept-away.

That said, the Conservative base held steady, showing that while the Conservatives are not making any gains, they aren’t collapsing either.

However, the weakness of the NDP is a big problem for Scheer, as he won’t be able to rely on vote-splits to achieve victory.

And that brings us to Jagmeet Singh, who had a terrible night.

The NDP won a minuscule percentage in each riding, finishing near 5% everywhere except Battlefords-Lloydminster. Even there, they only won about 13%.

Singh has zero momentum, and faces the dangerous trap that consumed previous NDP leaders (except Jack Layton in 2011), as the Liberals are winning the votes of NDP voters who don’t want to “waste” their votes and vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives.

If Singh can’t turn things around, the NDP will fall further into obscurity at the federal level, and the Conservatives will need to get far tougher – shifting towards Populism – in order to defeat Trudeau in 2019. Lucky vote-splits aren’t going to cut it anymore.

Elections Canada Results here

Spencer Fernando