Mainstreet Research poll shows Christine Elliott with a slight lead among decided voters,while the riding points numbers are almost tied.
A new poll by Mainstreet Research shows Christine Elliott with a slight lead over Doug Ford in the Ontario PC Leadership race.
When accounting for riding points, Elliott has 35.2% first ballot support, while Ford has 34.9% support. Mulroney is at 17.3%, and Granic-Allen is at 12.5%.
Elliott leads the popular vote over Ford in the poll among decided voters with 38.3% to Ford’s 32.2%.
The results led Mainstreet Research President & CEO Quito Maggi to say “With a strong majority of Caroline Mulroney’s second choice voters also expected to go to her, we believe that Christine Elliott is a slight favourite when the results are announced on Saturday.”
He added however, “Writing off Doug Ford would be a mistake because he is in good shape coming into Saturday. Over 2/3rds of Granic Allen’s second choice votes will go to Ford when she drops off the ballot and his vote is more efficient than Elliott’s”.
Out of 1000 simulations based on the results, Mainstreet says Elliott won 530 times, while Ford won 470 times.
This poll is bad news for Caroline Mulroney, as it seems Ontario PC voters aren’t interested in creating another political dynasty in Canada after watching Justin Trudeau’s governance.
The results will come down to how Elliott and Ford do after the first round, and particularly whether Granic-Allen’s supporters turn out in higher than expected numbers and give Ford a potential boost in subsequent rounds, or whether Caroline Mulroney’s supporters give Elliott the edge.
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