An environment of uncertainty in Ontario.
A new survey by Mainstreet Research contradicts the findings of an Ipsos survey released earlier today, a sign of the chaos and uncertainty in Ontario.
While the Ipsos poll showed the PCs with a 3 point lead and the NDP falling from the previous poll, Ipsos shows the NDP with a narrow lead of 1.4 points.
Notably, Mainstreet Research hadn’t released province-wide numbers for about 10 days, meaning it may have missed both the NDP surge, and the possibility that the surge has stalled and is receding.
Here are the key numbers:
NDP 39.3%, PC 37.9%, Liberals 16%
Mainstreet’s numbers show the Liberals lower than in other surveys, which have generally put them at around 20-25%.
When it comes to the regional breakdowns, the PCs retain a strong lead in the vote-rich GTA, while the NDP leads in downtown Toronto.
Mainstreet Research President and CEO Quito Maggi said “What our daily tracker and our riding polls have been showing is that there is a large divide between urban and rural Ontario where the NDP are leading in urban areas and the PCs dominating in the rural parts of the province. Because there are more seats in the rural areas, we think that Ford and the PCs still have the edge over the NDP – just.”
With some initial signs that the Socialist Surge is starting to dissipate – especially as more people learn about the NDP’s extremist radical candidates – the polls in the next few days will be important in revealing who is truly leading, or whether this level of uncertainty will continue all the way until Election Day.
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