NDP support has fallen dramatically since the last Forum Poll which showed them poised for a majority government.
A new poll by Forum Research – who had shocked many with their previous poll showing an NDP majority in Ontario – shows NDP support falling dramatically, with the PCs retaking the lead and the Liberals rising following the final leaders debate.
Here are the key numbers:
PCs 39%, NDP 35%, Liberals 19%
Compared to the previous Forum Poll, the PCs have gained 6 points, the NDP has lost 12 points, and the Liberals have gained 5 points.
The two main takeaways are that the previous poll by Forum was likely a ‘rogue poll’ that showed unrealistic numbers, and also that whatever temporary gain the NDP may have had in that sampling period is now gone as voters really consider the danger of electing the socialists.
Notably, the sample size for this Forum Poll was 2602 people, far larger than the 906 sampled in the previous poll that showed the NDP leading.
Forum says that under these results, the PCs would win 77 seats, the NDP would win 41 seats, and the Liberals would win 6.
Horwath’s net approval rating falls
Considering that the Ontario NDP rarely get much scrutiny, it is no surprise that Andrea Horwath has the most positive net approval rating. However, as people hear more about her, that rating is falling fast.
The previous Forum poll had shown 43% approving of Horwath, with 26% disapproving. But now, her approval rating is down to 40%, while her disapproval rating has increased to 32%.
Both Ford and Wynne have more negative ratings, which makes sense considering that the PCs and Liberals have been attacking each other for some time. Ford’s net approval rating is -23, while Wynne’s net approval rating is a staggering -42.
Still a close race
This latest Forum Poll is more in line with other polls showing a close race. It seems that more people are starting to reconsider whether the socialist NDP can be trusted with power. Still, it is a very close race, and nothing can be taken for granted at this point. To stop a socialist win or Liberal recovery, the people need to get out and vote.
Photo – YouTube