Tracker gives NDP slight lead in popular vote, PCs have advantage in seat projections.
Éric Grenier has updated his Poll Tracker (which is a decent election resource despite unfortunately being on the CBC website). Here are the key numbers:
In the popular vote, the NDP is at 37.1%, the PCs are at 36.1%, and the Liberals are at 20.3%.
When it comes to seat projections, the PCs are at 69 with a range of 48-78, the NDP are at 52 with a range of 44-64, and the Liberals are at 3, with a range of 0-18.
Grenier writes, “After closing the gap on the PCs, the New Democrats’ momentum appears to have stalled as the two parties have been effectively tied in the polls, with the leader going back and forth, for almost two weeks. The PCs are still projected to win the most seats because of their ability to capture more ridings in the GTA-Hamilton-Niagara region, where they can win twice as many seats as the NDP despite a slim lead there in the polls.”
These numbers should be taken with a grain of salt however, since none of the polls included in the tracker are from after Kathleen Wynne’s strange pre-election concession speech.
With Wynne admitting she can’t win, the upcoming polls will show how whether the electorate has changed dramatically, or whether Wynne’s announcement didn’t change much.
There are conflicting views on what impact Wynne’s announcement will have. Some say it will free up Liberal-leaning voters who dislike Wynne to vote for the Liberals anyway – without the fear that Wynne will retain power, while some say it will push voters to the NDP. Others have also raised the possibility that it will focus minds on the threat of a socialist government waking up many people and driving them to vote PC to stop that from happening.
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