The unemployment rate in the US has fallen to 3.8%
While polls a few weeks ago had shown the Democrats poised to pick up tons of seats in the upcoming US midterm election, recent surveys have shown a much tighter race.
The Real Clear Politics generic congressional vote polling average shows the Democrats with a 3.2% lead, down from a 7% point lead in March.
Considering that the Democrats likely need to win the popular vote by 5 points in order to get the most seats, the recent narrowing of the polls puts the Republicans in a solid position.
Now, the recent US jobs report could boost the Republicans even further.
The US economy added 223,000 jobs in the month of May, and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. According to The Hill, “Economists such as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell think the rate could drop as low as 3.5 percent. That would be lowest unemployment rate in more than 45 years.”
Because the Democrats so strongly opposed the Trump Tax Cuts – which many credit for boosting the economy – stronger economic numbers present a big political problem for the Democratic Party’s midterm hopes.
The direction of the economy is also helping the Republicans, since they can realistically point to improving economic conditions on their watch, while the Democrats often look like obstructionists.
A potential trouble-spot for Republicans however could be the rising risk of a trade war between the US and top allies. That said, the US economy is far more reliant on internal trade between states than on external trade, and strong domestic demand can mitigate much – but not all – of the disruption from international trade disputes.
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