Federal Conservatives drop 5 points from a month ago.
A new poll by Ipsos first reported by Global News, shows the Trudeau Liberals getting a summer bump, as they benefit from a lack of media attention on the Conservatives, and the ongoing trade dispute between Canada and the US.
The poll shows a significant turnaround from last month, when the Conservatives held a clear lead.
Now, the Liberals are up six points to 39%, while the Conservatives have fallen 5 points down to 32%. The NDP remains far back at 21%, while the moribund Bloc is down to just 2%. The Greens round out the list at 6%.
Trudeau’s approval rating is up to 55%, though many note that this is a usual “rally around the flag” effect when one nation is perceived as being under attack, either politically, militarily, or in this case economically, from an outside force.
Pollster Mike Colledge told Global, “The summer months are working very well for Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals, in part because of the response to the war of words for trade tariffs spat with Mr. Trump that rallied both the Liberal base as well as those who opposed the Liberals.”
He added that media attention is another issue:
“During summer, the House of Commons breaks and it takes away some of the oxygen from the opposition parties in terms of their ability to get media attention around key issues.”
While these top-line numbers will be a concern for the Conservatives, national poll results often change wildly from month to month. However, in the first test of Trudeau’s ‘trade war strategy,’ the Liberals were defeated by the Conservatives in a key Quebec riding they had previously held, even after promising millions in government spending just before calling the byelection.
Still, the issue of media attention is something the Conservatives will have to address. Doug Ford set an example as a politician unafraid to speak very clearly, generate his own media attention, and relentlessly rip into his opponents while offering a strong conservative message. He won big.
But Scheer still appears to be having trouble breaking through, and is still heavily reliant on hoping to get favourable coverage from the establishment media – which is something no conservative can rely upon. At a certain point, caution works against a political leader if they can’t generate sustained public attention.
In today’s era, toughness, and a willingness to create some controversy is necessary for Conservative political leaders to get attention and turn that attention into increased support and drive focus onto their key issues. If the poll results continue to show lower Conservative Party support, the calls for them to shift to a more aggressive strategy will certainly rise.
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