Maxime Bernier’s Move Will Cause Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain For Conservatives

The Liberals are likely laughing and sipping champagne as chaos engulfs the Conservatives. But they may not be laughing for long.

There’s no doubt that the Conservatives are going to feel some short-term pain from Maxime Bernier’s exit from the Conservative Party of Canada.

He will likely draw away some fundraising, he will take some votes (possibly many many votes) from the Conservative Party, and he will bring up topics that the leadership of the Conservative Party would rather not discuss.

In the next few months, the Conservatives will struggle to manage this new situation, and Bernier’s ability to connect with the Conservative base as well as his strong ability to fundraise and get media attention will likely build his potential new party into an organization capable of gaining seats.

At this point, the Liberals probably think Christmas just arrived early – and Justin Trudeau had a huge smile on his face as he avoided commenting on Bernier’s move.

But, Bernier’s move could be something the Liberals come to rue, and Conservatives could see long-term benefits from it.

Here’s why:

On issues like Supply Management, immigration, and Canadian identity, more than half of Canadians hold a Conservative viewpoint.

For example, polls have shown weak support for supply management, views on immigration that are often more conservative than some other western countries, and most recently – massive opposition to Justin Trudeau’s plan to spike immigration levels.

Currently however, no party is advocating for those viewpoints.

So why hasn’t the current Conservative Party taken similar positions?

Because they’re afraid.

Andrew Scheer is a pretty Conservative person. As much as he gets some rightful criticism for not being tougher, he’s not a secret Liberal plotting to impose Trudeau’s agenda.

He’s simply afraid of challenging the false-consensus imposed by the elites, and as a result he waters down his views as much as possible and lets Trudeau direct the agenda.

It’s similar to the problem Stephen Harper faced (even in government), as even after about a decade in power, most of what Harper did was undone within a year by Justin Trudeau’s horrendous government.

The issue is that those who push the false-consensus – which includes almost the entire media and political class – have successfully demonized mainstream conservative positions held by the majority of Canadians.

So, even when Conservatives hold power, they end up just slowing down disastrous Liberal policies, without really changing the direction of the country, and then have their fixes quickly undone when they lose power again.

Until the false consensus (which is designed to convince Canadians that their common-sense viewpoints are extreme and unacceptable) is challenged, Conservatives will always be on the defensive.

But if it is challenged – and challenged relentlessly and successfully – the political landscape of Canada could be transformed.

And that’s where Maxime Bernier comes in:

He’s obviously not a team player, but that’s the entire point. A team player would never have been willing to challenge the false-consensus that reigns in Ottawa, and a team player would always be screwed over by the political class the moment they got close to actually representing the views of a majority of Canadians.

But, if Bernier is successful in challenging and breaking down that consensus as an outsider, then millions of Canadians will realize that they are more conservative than they thought, and that Justin Trudeau and the media elites have been pulling the wool over their eyes.

Not only will that mean the Liberals could lose tons of votes, but the available electorate for the Conservatives could increase dramatically, and people will lose their fear of advocating true Conservatism. And, the Liberals will feel what it’s like to be constantly on the defensive.

If that ends up happening, the benefits to Conservatism will be massive, and the short-term pain will be seen as worth it.

Spencer Fernando

Photo – YouTube

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NancyW

That would be perfect, I hope it happens! I really really do not want the Lieberals/NDP in power ever again.

JD MacDonald

Canadians need a change in government, not a shift in government. And when you can barely tell the difference between the Conservatives and the Liberals in Ottawa, there’s definitely no change on the horizon. (*At least the loony-left, union-loving/loved NDP are keeping it real.) Maxime Bernier was right to leave the “Let’s not make waves, because someone might not approve” fake-con party and their feckless, “afraid of his own shadow” leader (#ScheerFolly) behind. This is what t’ai chi masters call “investing in loss”, where you give up something now in order to win definitively later. So Mr. Bernier’s well-timed departure… Read more »

Sylvain Lamoureux

There is an easy solution. Get rid of Scheer as leader and put Bernier in his place. As a first time voter for the Conservatives in 2019, I am not impressed with Scheer. He is weak and not a good leader. We’ll end up with a liberal in charge of the country if he is elected. He is just like Theresa May in the UK, useless.

Mike Allan

Nothing is a bad as dictator trudea.Any conservative will at least keep illegal out of Canada.

alan skelhorne

wrong

Joanne

I guess it’s four more years of Justin and the leftist Liberals then. No way will Max be able to form a new party and win a general election in 14 months. Preston Manning couldn’t do it, and he had much more time, and if I remember right, more than one election.

Since I live in Elizabeth May’s riding and she’s likely a lock to win anyway, for the first time since I was legally allowed to vote I may skip a federal election.

don morris

Please do NOT refuse to vote, we all owe it to the pioneers who built this Country and the brave men who died in it’s defence to get out and do our DUTY to the country and to ourselves. If you can’t stomach voting for one of the major Parties, you can probably find a good Independent candidate who needs the encouragement of getting some votes. I have never missed the chance to vote in any election,city,provincial or federal, in over fifty years since the first time I voted,for Pierre Trudeau, who sucked me in as he did millions of… Read more »

Michael

Maxime Bernier should have been leader of the Conservative party. The only reason Maxime is not party leader is because Andrew Scheer sold his soul to the Quebec daily farmer cartel. Remember that Scheer had just under 51% of the vote on the last ballot- a razor thin margin.

https://www.realagriculture.com/2017/05/dairy-farmers-made-difference-in-scheers-surprise-win-over-bernier/

Maxime is right. High-ranking conservative members are corrupt, power hungry and unprincipled. Under Scheer, there is no difference between the Liberals and Conservatives. I will not be renewing my CP membership.

Ken (Kulak)

Great article Spencer and I agree that it would be excellent if what you describe were to happen.

My house supported Scheer, but have been sorry since. The whipping of the Conservative caucus to vote for Trudeau’s Paris Accord stance was the last straw. Scheer seems to be steering the Conservative Party to be nothing but Liberal Lite on all major issues.

Gonzo the Magnificient

Not a likely scenario; too many if’s and unprobable conditions for it to happen. Let’s all just wait and see over the next 6 months where we are. Speculation is a “dime a dozen”.

Frederic Bernal

“Conservatism is just Progressivism driving the speed limit” – Michael Malice.

The CPC and the elite running it are fulfilling that statement every single day.

David MacKAY

Mr. Scheer did not want the Rebel News Media to report on the Halifax Convention! So much for Scheers Conservative Party transparency. Scheer not allowing the Rebel media in is like Justin Trudeau not allowing any media when he speaks at Muslim Mosques. Tthe reality is that this past weekend the Rebel News Service topped One Million paid subscribers. Do you think for one minute that CBC, CTV or Global could get one million paid subscribers for their News? Scheer does not wanting the Rebel media is the same as leftists Notely and Trudeau not wanting the Rebel media. Why… Read more »

don morris

Good article,Spencer,but I’m afraid I don’t share your optimism. Scheer inspires no one, even his speech at the convention which you featured in another thread, garnered only polite applause. Scheer and the CPC have to beat a formidable Liberal machine,with an incumbent PM who is still popular with the media and a good portion of the voters, and we have to do it with an uncharismatic Leader. This reminds me of nothing less than Trudeau1 versus Bob Stanfield. The best hope imo is if Bernier can attract enough attention in Quebec and steal that Province from the badly sagging NDP,… Read more »

Maryam McKinley

Interesting theory, I hope you are right. I disagree that Andrew Scheer is afraid. Only a centrist party can win in Canada and our tent has to include Millenials, new immigrants, all ethnicities and mixed race Canadians as well as our typical base. We have to prepare for the future. Our values must reflect mainstream Canadians and that is irrevocably moving left but that doesn’t mean we are abandoning all Conservative principles.

Guy Moosburger

Regardless, I dont think liberals stand a chance. JT climate change stance isn’t a winner and he’s just too weird.

Sue

With luck we will get a Conservative minority with Max’s new party sitting as opposition & liberals with non party status.