Poll on a hypothetical Bernier Party shows him taking votes from Conservatives, Liberals, and even the NDP.
A new poll by Abacus Data on the potential impact of a hypothetical Maxime Bernier Party shows it could win a substantial amount of support, appearing to take support from all parties – but particularly the Conservatives.
Abacus polled Canadians on their current party choices, and the results had the Liberals at 37%, the Conservatives at 34%, the NDP 18%.
However, with a Bernier Party included in the choices, the Liberals were at 34%, the Conservatives at 28%, the NDP at 16%, and the Bernier Party at 13%.
In Canada’s two most populous provinces, Bernier’s Party would have a particularly large impact. In Ontario, the Conservatives go from tied with the Liberals to 5 points behind the Liberals when Bernier’s Party is included.
In Quebec, the Bernier Party leads the Conservatives, with 15%, compared to the Conservatives at 11%. The Liberals are at 41% in Quebec.
The poll also shows substantial agreement with Bernier’s criticisms of the Conservative Party.
55% said they agreed with Bernier that the Conservative Party is “too intellectually and morally corrupt to be reformed.” 21% of Conservatives said they agreed with that.
54% agreed that the Conservatives don’t offer “anything of substance to voters looking for a political alternative.” 29% of Conservatives agreed.
62% agreed that “The whole strategy of the Conservative Party is to play identity politics, pander to various interest groups, and buy votes with promises, just like the Liberals.”
36% of Conservatives agreed. 62% of Ontarians agreed, and 72% in Quebec agreed.
And beyond the 13% support shown for a hypothetical Bernier Party in the polls, a large number of Canadians are willing to consider voting for it.
6% of Canadians said they would be “certain” to vote for a Bernier Party, 10% said they would be “likely” to, and 33% said they would “consider” it.
And among Conservative supporters, a full 52% are either certain (18%), or willing to consider (34%) voting for a Bernier Party.
It’s important to note that the poll discussed something still hypothetical at this stage. Currently, there is no Bernier Party. However, the results of the survey show that there’s a large potential audience for a party led by Maxime Bernier espousing the ideas he’s put forward, and the Conservatives can’t afford to ignore the views of people drawn to Bernier’s message.
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