ABACUS DATA POLL: Maxime Bernier Party Would Win 13% Of Vote, Leads Conservatives In Quebec

Poll on a hypothetical Bernier Party shows him taking votes from Conservatives, Liberals, and even the NDP.

A new poll by Abacus Data on the potential impact of a hypothetical Maxime Bernier Party shows it could win a substantial amount of support, appearing to take support from all parties – but particularly the Conservatives.

Abacus polled Canadians on their current party choices, and the results had the Liberals at 37%, the Conservatives at 34%, the NDP 18%.

However, with a Bernier Party included in the choices, the Liberals were at 34%, the Conservatives at 28%, the NDP at 16%, and the Bernier Party at 13%.

In Canada’s two most populous provinces, Bernier’s Party would have a particularly large impact. In Ontario, the Conservatives go from tied with the Liberals to 5 points behind the Liberals when Bernier’s Party is included.

In Quebec, the Bernier Party leads the Conservatives, with 15%, compared to the Conservatives at 11%. The Liberals are at 41% in Quebec.

The poll also shows substantial agreement with Bernier’s criticisms of the Conservative Party.

55% said they agreed with Bernier that the Conservative Party is “too intellectually and morally corrupt to be reformed.” 21% of Conservatives said they agreed with that.

54% agreed that the Conservatives don’t offer “anything of substance to voters looking for a political alternative.” 29% of Conservatives agreed.

62% agreed that “The whole strategy of the Conservative Party is to play identity politics, pander to various interest groups, and buy votes with promises, just like the Liberals.”

36% of Conservatives agreed. 62% of Ontarians agreed, and 72% in Quebec agreed.

And beyond the 13% support shown for a hypothetical Bernier Party in the polls, a large number of Canadians are willing to consider voting for it.

6% of Canadians said they would be “certain” to vote for a Bernier Party, 10% said they would be “likely” to, and 33% said they would “consider” it.

And among Conservative supporters, a full 52% are either certain (18%), or willing to consider (34%) voting for a Bernier Party.

It’s important to note that the poll discussed something still hypothetical at this stage. Currently, there is no Bernier Party. However, the results of the survey show that there’s a large potential audience for a party led by Maxime Bernier espousing the ideas he’s put forward, and the Conservatives can’t afford to ignore the views of people drawn to Bernier’s message.

Spencer Fernando

Photo – YouTube

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And he’s not even started yet. He’s going to increase his support. Let’s wait till the debates start. An incoherent Justin, an evasive Scheer, and a determined Bernier who happens to be a great communicator.


So it is very clear that he is very selfish and unfit to lead, and does not care if Canada is destroyed, he wants Trudeau re-elected, to finish the destruction of Canada, he sounds like he has taken drama queen lessons from Trudeau/Lieberal/NDP party, calling the Conservatives losers and corrupt etc. does he even listen or comprehend what is happening in Canada? That Canadians would vote for another Trudeau type drama man is very disappointing especially when not as loud but or brazen, this is mostly the same as the Conservative Parties platform without the quota system being stopped (which… Read more »

Eric Blair

Bottom line in all this is that we have one Quebecer helping out another Quebecer intentional or not. Why in the last 50 years has our PM being from Quebec 80% of the time? Why no PM from our most populous province, Ontario. These polling results will be disastrous for the Tories so why not come to the realization that something must be done, now or lose the next election. One guy that is from Ontario who is doing what I call a good job hounding Trudeau, is Pierre Poilievre. He is not a pretty is Trudeau but he seems… Read more »

Valerie Clark

That 13% of votes would come from Conservative voters and is enough to give Just a Turdo another win. We need to vote Conservative to get rid of the idiot first, then we can get a new leader for the Conservatives if we deem it necessary or support Maxim Bernier in the 2023 election. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO THINK ABOUT SPLITTING THE VOTE.

Steve Sedore

Steve Sedore. There is NO such thing as :SLITTING THE VOTE: All we need to do is get behind someone that has a WORKABLE platform and has the GUTS to stand up to the LIB-CON people and IF you LIB-CON supporters can not see what is in front of you with who you are supporting YOU are courting a DEATH SENTENCE FOR CANADA. We must stop this STUPIDITY before the UN starts to run CANADA with people from GOD KNOWS where that know and care nothing about the people of CANADA and they are NOT elected for anything.

Ron Werner

which would be only enough to ensure Trudeau gets in again, if only with a minority.
why does it always appear that politics is rigged to allow the most dangerous person to win?!


How about a poll using Bernier or Rempel or Poilievre or another front bencher as Cons leader? It would be very interesting. Would Prime Minister Bigot get scared?

Ralph Knapp

Bernier is the best thing to happen to the Liberals in years. Unless there’s a reconciliation within the conservative factions, Trudeau will cakewalk to a second term.

Gonzo the Magnificient

This does not bode well for 2019; Bernier should have done this years ago. To do it now means too much damage will be done to Canada with Trudeau winning again in 2019 to ever reverse it – by anyone. It is better to have Bernier light with Andrew Scheer than Canada’s version of Jeremy Corbyn/Angela Merkel with Justin Trudeau.


The problems we currently face are, in a major part, due to letting polls do the thinking for us. There is no effectual leader in our future because the leader we need cannot get elected. Until we realize that uncomfortable truths are truths nonetheless and require acknowledgement of that fact we let the polls do the thinking for us. They at best only relate the state of the stupidity factor present in our collective thought process. We would come out much better if we learned to remember empirical evidence when approaching a ballot box. That is why I propose a… Read more »

Diane DiFlorio

People have to wonder if this is a divide and conquer ploy. If people jump from the conservative ship to Bernier’s newly formed party, it would appear that the LIBERALS would be back in power again. Although Sheer has shown some weakness, and no doubt there are issues in the PC party, to toss your vote to Bernier, based on the above hypothetical poll, would mean another four years of Trudeau rule. That cannot happen !!

Bernard Hutchinson

The only question I have is if Maxine Bernier formed a party & betwem him & Scheer that got a majority, do you think they would for a coalition to defeat the Liberals and have a majority in the house or do you think Bernier would simply allow Trudeau to have another Majority? If Trudeau gets another majority, then I believe that the damage Trudeau wi do to Canada will be catastrophic!

shawn harris

Pity the Canadian voter, most have been trained by the media, including social media to accept whatever is on their screen at the time. Gone are the days of the average citizen using critical thinking, researching, and asking the tough , critical and pointed questions, then thinking before making any choices at all. The voters have been reduced to the level of an under informed citizen , who only knows what the previous voter knows. Real,beneficial and long lasting change will only come when we start to force this current crop of politicians to answer, without the aid of pollsters,strategists… Read more »

don morris

I agree with Ezra levant’s take on this; the fault lies mainly with Scheer who should have been able to make an accommodation with Bernier for the sake of the CPC AND Canada, as Jean Chretien did with Paul Martin. Bernier could have been utilized as an effective attack dog, especially in Quebec, where Trudeau is vulnerable. Instead we have the 1990’s scenario all over again. I believe Scheer is no different than any other politician, no more of a commitment to ordinary Canadians than any of the others. His support of the Quebec dairy cartel gives the lie to… Read more »