Forum Research says Conservatives leading by 6 points.
The Conservative Party remains in the lead over the Trudeau Liberals.
A new Forum Research poll shows the Conservatives with a 6 point lead, down from a 9 point lead in the last Forum Survey from the end of February.
The change is within the margin of error.
Additionally, Forum has regularly shown the Conservatives leading, a contrast to other polls that long showed a Liberal lead, but have now shifted to also showing the Conservatives ahead.
Here are the key numbers:
Conservatives – 41%
Liberals – 35%
NDP – 14%
Forum also calculated the potential seat distribution based on those popular vote results. They showed the Conservatives winning a minority with 173 seats, the Liberals at 143, and the NDP at 21.
When broken down by province, the Liberals overall popular vote numbers are skewed by their immense lead in Quebec. They have 54% there, compared to 22% for the Conservatives. Notably, the Conservatives lead in every other province and region, including a 4 point lead in Ontario, an 11 point lead in Atlantic Canada, a 21 point lead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, a whopping 53 point lead in Alberta, and a 15 point lead in BC.
The Liberals were likely hoping that the budget would catapult them back into the lead. It hasn’t happened.
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