Greens close in on NDP.
The federal Liberals continue to struggle in the latest Angus Reid poll, with their support still below 30%.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives maintain a solid lead.
The NDP is also watching their lock on third place get weaker and weaker, with the Greens closing in and now within the margin of error.
Here are the key numbers:
Conservatives – 37% (down 1 point from last month)
Liberals – 26% (up 1 point from last month)
NDP – 15% (down 3 points from last month)
Greens – 12% (up 1 point from last month)
Bloc – 5% (unchanged)
People’s – 4% (up 1 point from last month)
While the Angus Reid poll generally shows the Conservatives with a larger lead than other pollsters like Nanos, the trend has been consistent, and matches with what most other polls are showing – a Conservative lead.
Of course, while federal numbers give an overall picture, it’s the provincial breakdowns that matter most.
Angus Reid shows the Conservatives leading in every region, though some of those leads are narrow:
In BC, the Conservatives lead the Greens 36% to 22%. The Liberals are third with 20%, and the NDP trails with 18%.
In Alberta, the Conservatives dominate, leading the Liberals 62% to 16%.
In Saskatchewan, the Conservatives lead the NDP 60% to 17%.
In Manitoba, the Conservatives lead the NDP, with 51% to 20%.
In Ontario the race is narrow, with the Conservatives at 34% and the Liberals close behind at 32%.
The Conservatives even lead in Quebec – in what may be an outlier as it differs from most other polls – with 28%, to the Liberals at 26%. The Bloc is third with 20%.
And while the Liberals absolutely dominated Atlantic Canada in the 2015 campaign, they have hemorrhaged support. They now trail the Conservatives, who have 33%. The Liberals are down to 30%, representing a loss of roughly half their entire support in the Atlantic region.
Overall, this poll is good news for the Conservatives. That said, the election is not even close to being decided, and a small shift in voter support in Ontario and Quebec could shift massive amounts of seats either way.
And with their plan to try and control social media and control the establishment press, the Trudeau Liberals will be using every dirty trick to try and close the gap and stay in power.
This is no time for complacency.
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