Seat projections give Conservatives narrow minority.
The latest Forum Research poll continues the trend seen in most other surveys: Conservatives leading, Liberals in second, and the Greens rising.
The Conservatives are at 34% (a drop of 3 points from Forum’s most recent poll though within the margin of error).
The Liberals are unchanged at 30%.
The Greens are up 4 points, now pulling in 13% of the vote.
The NDP are at 13% as well, and now face the nightmare scenario of being overtaken by the Greens – which could result in the NDP being wiped out.
However, the NDP vote is still more efficient, as they have concentrated pockets of support and could win some seats at 13%, while Green support is more spread out, meaning they could get lots of votes while not winning seats.
According to the seat projection, Forum projects the Conservatives at 151 seats, the Liberals at 134, the NDP at 27, the Bloc at 23, the Greens at 3, and the People’s Party/other parties at 0 seats.
Looking more deeply at the numbers, there are a few oddities. For example, the Conservatives lead among people age 18-34, while being tied among people 65 and older. That’s a big contrast with most polls that show the Liberals doing well among the 18-34 group, but doing poorly with most other segments.
However, that could be due in large part to the small sample size of each segment, meaning that while the overall poll numbers could be relatively accurate, the segments can be out of whack.
There are some warning signs for the Conservatives in the poll, despite their overall lead. They are shown to be leading in Atlantic Canada, but trailing the Liberals by 7 points in seat-rich Ontario. The Liberals lead by 13 points in Quebec, while the Conservatives dominate Alberta by 50 points, lead by 15 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and hold a 16 point lead over the Liberals in BC.
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