Both Ipsos and Angus Reid polls show the Conservatives holding a solid lead.
Earlier in the week, an Angus Reid poll showed the Conservatives with a solid 8 point lead over the Liberals federally.
Now, a new Ipsos poll shows a similar gap.
The poll puts the Conservatives in first with 37%, while the Liberals trail with 31%. The numbers for the NDP and Greens contradict some other polls which have shown the Greens closing in on third place. The Ipsos poll gives the NDP 18%, while the Greens have 7%.
The Bloc – running only in Quebec – is at 5%, while the People’s Party is at 1% nationwide.
Here are the regional numbers:
BC – Conservatives 38%, Liberals 28%, Greens 19%, NDP 18%
Alberta – Conservatives 55%, Liberals 24%, NDP 15%, Greens 4%, People’s Party 3%
Saskatchewan & Manitoba – Conservatives 40%, Liberals 31%, NDP 16%, Greens 13%
Ontario – Conservatives 38%, Liberals 32%, NDP 22%, Greens 5%, People’s Party 1%
Quebec – Liberals 37%, Conservatives 24%, Bloc 22%, NDP 10%, Greens 4%, People’s Party 1%
Atlantic Canada – Conservatives 44%, Liberals 28%, NDP 20%, Greens 8%
Notably – and in a finding that contradicts almost every other poll – the Conservatives are more popular among women than among men. Among women, the Conservatives are at 39% compared to the Liberals at 29%.
Among men, the Conservatives are at 35%, while the Liberals are at 33%. Almost every other poll – both recent and in the past – has shown the Conservatives are more popular among men than among women, so we will need to see if future polls replicate this finding.
The poll also shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals among people aged 18-34, with 30% to the Liberals at 28%. The vote in the younger demographic is more fragmented, with the NDP at 24% and the Greens at 11%.
Among people aged 35-54, the Liberals lead with 37%, and the Conservatives have 31%.
Among Canadians age 55 and above, the Conservatives dominate with 47%, while the Liberals are far back at 29%.
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