POLL: Conservatives Hold Narrow Lead

Liberals gain support in Quebec following resurgence of Trudeau’s SNC-Lavalin controversy according to Ipsos poll.

A new Ipsos poll shows the Conservatives maintaining a narrow lead over the Liberals, with little change following the Ethics Commissioner report on Justin Trudeau’s violation of Ethics Law.

The Conservatives have 35% support nationally, while the Liberals are close behind at 33%. The Liberals are up 2 points since the previous Ipsos poll last month, and the Conservatives are down 2 points. Notably, both of those moves are within the margin of error, meaning the results are basically static.

Meanwhile, the NDP is at 18%, the Greens are at 9%, the Bloc is at 14% in Quebec, and the People’s Party is at 1%.

In the main battlegrounds of Ontario, Quebec, and BC, the results are mixed.

The Conservatives lead the Liberals in Ontario by 3 points.

In BC, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by 4 points.

And in Quebec, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by 19 points, having expanded their margin since the Ethics Commissioner report.

In terms of demographic breakdowns, the Conservatives lead the Liberals among men, and are tied among women. The Liberals lead among Canadians age 18-34, while they are tied with the Conservatives among Canadians age 35-54. Among Canadians 55 and above, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 10 points.

This poll is one of the first major polls released since the SNC-Lavalin PMO Scandal re-emerged, so we will need to wait for more info to determine what impact it has had on voter opinion.

Spencer Fernando