Abacus Poll: Conservatives & Liberals Locked In Close Race

Regional breakdowns point to divided nation.

A new Abacus Data poll shows the Conservatives and Liberals locked in a tight race.

Nationwide, the Conservatives have 34%, with the Liberals close behind (within the margin of error) at 33%.

In contrast to some surveys which have shown the Greens surpassing the NDP, Abacus has a more traditional result, with the NDP at 17%, while the Greens are at 9%.

Rounding out the national results, the BQ are at 4%, while the People’s Party is at 3%.

If these results were replicated in a federal election – which is of course hypothetical at this point – it raises the possibility of the People’s Party vote being the difference between a Conservative win or a Conservative loss. A few points either way could make a big difference in whether Trudeau retains, or loses power.

Here are the regional breakdowns:

BC: Conservatives 31%, Liberals 29%, NDP 22%, Greens 14%, People’s 4%

Alberta: Conservatives 58%, Liberals 21%, NDP 14%, Greens 4%, People’s 2%

Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Conservatives 46%, Liberals 22%, NDP 22%, Greens 8%, People’s 3%

Ontario: Liberals 37%, Conservatives 33%, NDP 19%, Greens 9%, People’s 2%

Quebec: Liberals 35%, Conservatives 23%, Bloc 18%, NDP 12%, People’s 3%

Atlantic Canada: Liberals 43%, Conservatives 30%, Greens 13%, NDP 11%, People’s 2%

The Abacus poll also shows the Liberal government with net negative approval. 46% say disapprove of the government, while 37% approve.

Trudeau and Scheer both have popularity problems, with Trudeau’s approval at 35% compared to disapproval of 45%. For Scheer, 33% approve, while 37% disapprove.

Abacus polls generally show a more pro-Liberal result than many other surveys. However, as I’ve noted before, the most important thing to look for is the trend. And the trend in both the Abacus survey and other recent polls is showing a narrowing race, with the Conservative base remaining solid, the Liberals rebounding somewhat from the SNC-Lavalin Scandal trough, and a close election ahead in a divided nation.

Spencer Fernando