Abacus Poll: Conservatives & Liberals Locked In Close Race

Regional breakdowns point to divided nation.

A new Abacus Data poll shows the Conservatives and Liberals locked in a tight race.

Nationwide, the Conservatives have 34%, with the Liberals close behind (within the margin of error) at 33%.

In contrast to some surveys which have shown the Greens surpassing the NDP, Abacus has a more traditional result, with the NDP at 17%, while the Greens are at 9%.

Rounding out the national results, the BQ are at 4%, while the People’s Party is at 3%.

If these results were replicated in a federal election – which is of course hypothetical at this point – it raises the possibility of the People’s Party vote being the difference between a Conservative win or a Conservative loss. A few points either way could make a big difference in whether Trudeau retains, or loses power.

Here are the regional breakdowns:

BC: Conservatives 31%, Liberals 29%, NDP 22%, Greens 14%, People’s 4%

Alberta: Conservatives 58%, Liberals 21%, NDP 14%, Greens 4%, People’s 2%

Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Conservatives 46%, Liberals 22%, NDP 22%, Greens 8%, People’s 3%

Ontario: Liberals 37%, Conservatives 33%, NDP 19%, Greens 9%, People’s 2%

Quebec: Liberals 35%, Conservatives 23%, Bloc 18%, NDP 12%, People’s 3%

Atlantic Canada: Liberals 43%, Conservatives 30%, Greens 13%, NDP 11%, People’s 2%

The Abacus poll also shows the Liberal government with net negative approval. 46% say disapprove of the government, while 37% approve.

Trudeau and Scheer both have popularity problems, with Trudeau’s approval at 35% compared to disapproval of 45%. For Scheer, 33% approve, while 37% disapprove.

Abacus polls generally show a more pro-Liberal result than many other surveys. However, as I’ve noted before, the most important thing to look for is the trend. And the trend in both the Abacus survey and other recent polls is showing a narrowing race, with the Conservative base remaining solid, the Liberals rebounding somewhat from the SNC-Lavalin Scandal trough, and a close election ahead in a divided nation.

Spencer Fernando

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Don Taylor

How can any one with a clear concience vote for a liar and thief like Turdeau

pancake rachel corrie

close race???? everyone I know is voting PPC


In the last three years Ontario has received over one million new immigrants, now Canadian, with 100’s of thousands more without Canadian citizenship yet but soon we are told. They all do not know as yet about Canadian politics but will be told what to vote for, even though some have started to see the light, this will make a uneducated voter having a lot of sway in our Elections here, especially with our bought out LIEberal media. Yes this poll is really showing the divide in Canada. I think we need a few million western Canadians to vote in… Read more »

Paul George

Thanks, Spencer Fernando, this helps a bit. I am still optimistic that Canadians are going to by and large hand Justin his pink slip.

Lance Hodge

Guess Scheer shouldn’t have ignored his base as we wouldn’t be in this mess….oh well PPC2019 and not changing my mind. LibCon’s have fractured us real conservatives. Congrats Andy

Shawn Harris

When the public actually sits down and considers just what Trudeau represents and the disaster his government has been for everyone, then they will say no to Trudeau and give the Conservatives a majority government. After all the mud slinging and lies by Trudeau and his Liberals , exactly what can they offer, a repeat of the same lies, scandals and contempt Trudeau has already given to everyone.


If the people of Canada cannot see the writing on the wall; the liberals have admitted the carbon tax will go up and what we have paid is going to third world countries (ie. 2.65 billion noted in 2017); taxes on plastic and talking meat; more money to companies like SNC and other Quebec corps; the death of the oil industry; more legal/illegal immigrants and refugees (under the guidelines of the UN Migration Pact). Canada, you put this nit-wit , along with his other knot heads he has in cabinet, in power your country that you have known, will be… Read more »

old white guy

Yah, and Hillary had a 98% chance of winning the presidency of the US.

Brian Stewart

Pollster and owner of Abacus Bruce Anderson has a daughter who works for the liberals. I would pay as much attention to Abacus Data as I do to Ekos, that is very little


Trudeau needs 4 more years to complete the great replacement …then canada will be a vassal state of the UN