Ipsos Poll: Conservatives Lead, Green Support Shrinks

Green Party down 4 points since previous Ipsos poll.

A new Ipsos Poll for Global News shows the Conservatives maintaining a narrow lead, while the Greens are losing support.

Since the last poll, the Conservatives are up 1 point to 37% nationally. The Liberals are up two points to 34%, while the NDP is in third with their support unchanged at 15%.

The Greens have suffered a big drop, with their support falling from 11% to 7%.

The Bloc is at 5%, up 1 from the previous poll, and the PPC remains in last place with 2%.

Conservatives lead among men

While pundits often talk about the gender gap, it’s often about repeating the old lines about the Conservatives struggling among female voters. Of course, the gender gap also goes the other way, and the Liberals are in big trouble among male voters.

The Ipsos poll shows the Conservatives and Liberals tied among women at 34% apiece. Among men, the Conservatives have 40%, with the Liberals far back at 34%.

There is also a big gap in NDP support, with Jagmeet Singh’s party at 19% among women, and just 11% among men.

In the two most closely contest provinces – Ontario and BC – the Conservatives and Liberals are within the poll’s margin of error.

The Liberals narrowly lead in Ontario with 39% to the Conservatives 37%. In BC, the Conservatives have 35%, with the Liberals at 34%.

It should be noted that in both Ontario and BC, there are massive regional differences. The Liberals will win big in Toronto, while rural areas go heavily Conservatives. That makes the suburban ridings the real battleground.

Similarly, the Liberals will do well in Victoria and Vancouver in BC, while the Conservatives dominate the rural areas of the province. Once again, suburban and smaller town/small city ridings will be heavily contested.

Spencer Fernando

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