The odds of a minority government continue to rise.
The latest Angus Reid poll has confirmed many of the trends being seen in other polls:
Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is gaining support, and is now up to 19%. Five days ago he was at 17%, and 14 days ago he was at 14% in the Angus Reid poll.
Singh’s personal favourability ratings have surged dramatically, with 64% of Canadian having a favourable view of him. That’s up 5 points in the last five days, and is a whopping 18 points up from the start of October.
The Liberals are mired at weak levels of support, especially when compared to their 39.6% result in 2015. The Angus Reid poll puts the Liberals at 29%, steady in the last five days, and down 1 point from the start of the month.
However, while the Liberals are struggling, the Conservatives are also struggling to take advantage. The Conservatives are down to 33%, a drop of 1 point in the past five days, and down a full 4 points from the beginning of October.
The Greens are at 8%, the Bloc is also at 8%, and the PPC is at 3%
Here are the regional breakdowns:
BC – Conservatives 32%, NDP 26%, Liberals 26%, Greens 9%, PPC 4%
Alberta – Conservatives 50%, NDP 23%, Liberals 17%, Greens 9%, PPC 5%
Saskatchewan/Manitoba – Conservatives 50%, NDP 23%, Liberals 18%, Greens 5%, PPC 4%
Ontario – Conservatives 34%, Liberals 34%, NDP 20%, Greens 9%, PPC 2%
Quebec – Bloc 32%, Liberals 29%, Conservatives 17%, NDP 12%, Greens 6%, PPC 3%
Atlantic – Conservatives 37%, Liberals 29%, NDP 17%, Greens 15%, PPC 3%
When it comes to party leader favourability ratings, Jagmeet Singh has a clear advantage:
Singh – 64% favourable
Yves-Francous Blanchet (Quebec only) – 56% favourable
Elizabeth May – 47% favourable
Andrew Scheer 37% favourable
Justin Trudeau 36% favourable
Maxime Bernier – 17% favourable
The Conservatives may have a turnout advantage, with 75% of prospective Conservative voters saying they are “absolutely certain” of who they will vote for. Meanwhile, just 45% of prospective Liberals say the same. 51% of NDP voters are certain.
In a troubling sign for the Liberals – who are desperate to reverse the Bloc surge in Quebec – 72% of prospective Bloc voters say they are “absolutely certain” of their vote. For the Greens, just 29% are certain.
These numbers are pretty much in line with what we are seeing in other polls: The Liberals are way down from 2015, the Conservatives are struggling to take advantage, NDP support is up, the Bloc is strong in Quebec, and a chaotic minority government – with potentially catastrophic results for Canada’s national unity – lies ahead of us.
Of course, there are still five days left, and anything can happen.
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