If the polls are even close to being accurate, Election Day will be the end of the campaign, and the beginning of a new era of chaos in Canada.
It’s a deadlock.
That’s the verdict of the final Canadian election polls, as Sunday turns into Monday and the moment of decision nears.
Polls from Campaign Research, Mainstreet Research, Abacus, Nanos, and Ipsos all show the race between the Conservatives and Liberals incredibly close, with the parties within the margin-of-error of each other in all the polls. It should be noted that the results in all the polls are very similar, even among pollsters who are generally considered pro-Conservative and pro-Liberal respectively. This means that either all the pollsters are missing something big that will only be revealed on Election Day, or that they are all accurately reading the electorate.
Here are the final numbers:
CAMPAIGN RESEARCH: Liberals 31.7%, Conservatives 31.4%, NDP 17.4%, Greens 9.1%, Bloc 6.6%, PPC 2.7%
IPSOS: Conservatives 33%, Liberals 31%, NDP 18%, Greens 6%, Bloc 7%, PPC 3%
MAINSTREET RESEARCH: Conservatives 32.2%, Liberals 31.6%, NDP 18.3%, Greens 6.1%, Bloc 7.9%, PPC 2.8%
ABACUS: Liberals 34%, Conservatives 32%, NDP 16%, Greens 8%, Bloc 8%, PPC 2%
NANOS: Conservatives 31.5%, Liberals 31.0%, NDP 18.8%, Greens 9.5%, Bloc 7.0%, PPC 1.8%
There are some areas of potential concern for all parties in these numbers. For the Conservatives, they appear to be falling far short of a majority, and their massive support in Alberta and Saskatchewan, combined with struggles in Ontario Quebec, means they could run up huge margins in seats they were already going to win, while failing to gain enough new seats in battleground regions.
For the Liberals, it’s clear that Trudeau’s image has been substantially damaged. While his scandals have not destroyed the Liberal party, they are far below their 2015 numbers. Instead of roaring to a clear victory, they have been reduced to a brutally negative campaign to try and hold onto what they have.
The NDP has recovered from their moribund levels early in the campaign, and Jagmeet Singh has boosted his personal popularity. But, the NDP is still far below the top two parties, and could get wiped out in Quebec.
The Greens had a lot of momentum when the campaign began, but that momentum has shifted to the NDP. Once again, it appears that Elizabeth May has failed to translate the Greens potential support into real support. Remember, at one point it seemed possible the Greens would surpass the NDP. Now, that’s clearly not happening.
The Bloc may be the only party with no real reason to be worried, as they have been surging for weeks and really only had one direction to go. However, the Bloc may soon have to decide who to support in a minority government, imposing some real responsibility on a party that had hoped to rip the government from the sidelines.
And for the PPC, it remains to be seen whether Maxime Bernier will win his own seat, and beyond that, whether the PPC can win a few other seats around the nation. It could happen if there are lots of ‘shy PPC supporters,’ but that remains to be seen.
This looks like it will be the closest federal election Canada has seen in decades.
Photos – Twitter