“Aggressive social distancing and large scale quarantines” necessary to bring the numbers down.
A disturbing new report reveals experts warning that between 35% to 70% of Canadians could become infected with the Coronavirus.
As reported by the National Post, “According to a disease-transmission model developed by University of Toronto researchers, the virus’ overall attack rate in Canada, without public health interventions, could exceed 70 per cent. That number drops sharply, by about half, “if we add modest control,” said epidemiologist Dr. David Fisman, one of the model’s creators, but it will take “aggressive social distancing and large scale quarantines” to reduce it further, he said.
“That’s still a huge number of people ill, and critically ill people are a large fraction in this disease,” Fisman said in an email. “I’m not going to share more specific numbers because I think they will scare people to no particular end.””
Notably, the emerging picture in the Provinces reveals a system already at the breaking point, with shortages already being reported:
“Doctors in Alberta have complained of a “lack of forward thinking” and poor communication about emergency planning. B.C. nurses have warned they’re already working short, and there are concerns about dwindling supplies of face masks, eye shields and other protective equipment. Federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu Monday acknowledged that Ottawa is “very alive to the fact that some provinces are indicating they have deficits.”
As one expert put it, “you’re already working at 120 per cent capacity and now you have this on top of your normal work.”
“On the ground, there are concerns around supplies of gowns, gloves, masks, oxygen, drugs, ventilators, and laboratory capacity for virus testing.
“We need to scale up the testing of these viruses,” Cloutier said. “It’s taking far too long in some centres to get the results.””
Fisman is raising the idea that new hospitals will need to be built, akin to the makeshift hospitals that were built in Wuhan, China.
In short, Canada’s healthcare system is already overburdened, and with the reality of Coronavirus dawning on the nation, a total collapse of the healthcare system must be averted at all costs.
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