Conservative support down almost 10 points from 2019 election results.
A new survey shows the Liberals with a massive lead in polling intentions.
According to Leger (a pollster that was quite accurate in the previous election), the Liberals have the support of 44% of respondents.
25% support the Conservatives, 15% support the NDP, 7% support the Bloc, and 7% support the Greens.
While support for the NDP, Bloc, and Greens is all close to their 2019 election results, Conservative support has tanked.
The Conservatives are down 9 points from their 2019 election results, while the Liberals are up 11 points.
The nearly 20-point gap is clearly due in part to the ‘rally round the flag’ effect often seen in crisis, as people want to support the leader of their nation during a dangerous moment.
Some of the lead is also attributable to media bias, which has allowed the Liberals to get much of a free pass on some of their huge mistakes (like keeping the border open and failing to impose tough screening at airports).
However, the Conservatives are also struggling to find a message that resonates with Canadians. After voting for the economic package to help Canadians, the Conservatives have been trying to figure out how to criticize aspects of the delivery, and the polls show their message is falling flat.
Rather than focus on issues like the horribly disturbing decision by the Liberals to have Canada partner with China’s military on a vaccine (even writing that sounds insane) the Conservatives have focused more and more rhetoric on the CERB program, allowing Trudeau to position himself as getting money in the hands of Canadians fast.
The party is also in the midst of a leadership race, so the opportunity to present a more focused message isn’t there.
As I noted on Twitter, given the worldwide scale of the health crisis and economic crisis, many voters are going to be thinking similar to how people felt during World War Two, and will not be focused on the budget deficit and the debt right now, meaning the Conservatives will need to focus on directly helping Canadians and making our country more self-reliant, rather than endless deficit talk:
“Just like people accepted huge budget deficits in WW2, people won’t turf the Liberals for big deficits now. Campaigning on that will be a loser for the Conservatives. Instead, they should campaign on huge tax cuts for low/middle-income People, & bringing our supply chains home.”
“By contrast, a focus on the debt and deficit right now will let the Liberals play the old ‘what will you cut’ game, and let the Liberals campaign as the ones ‘putting money in your pocket,’ which is a battle they would win right now.”
“A message of providing support to Canadians in need, reducing the tax burden on low income and middle class people, and a pro-Working Class agenda to bring our critical supply chains back within our country will win wide backing across the country.”
“At this point, getting to a balanced budget means we need big time economic growth, and that won’t happen while Canada is so vulnerable and reliant on foreign nations like we are now. We need a much stronger local/domestic economy.”
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