POLL: Conservatives & Liberals TIED Following O’Toole Win

Support for the Conservatives has risen.

A new Angus Reid survey shows the Conservatives and Liberals tied, with support for the Conservative Party on the rise.

In May, the Liberals led the Conservatives by 6 points, with 37% to the Conservatives 31%.

Now, both parties are tied at 35%.

The NDP trails with 17%, while the Bloc has 7% and the Greens have 4%.

Here are the regional breakdowns:

BC: Conservatives 34%, Liberals 33%, NDP 17%, Greens 8%

ALBERTA: Conservatives 61%, Liberals 19%, NDP 14%, Greens 1%

SASKATCHEWAN: Conservatives 61%, Liberals 16%, NDP 16%, Greens 1%

MANITOBA: Conservatives 46%, Liberals 26%, NDP 23%, Greens 3%

ONTARIO: Liberals 42%, Conservatives 35%, NDP 17%, Greens 4%

QUEBEC: Liberals 34%, Bloc 28%, Conservatives 20%, NDP 14%, Greens 4%

NEW BRUNSWICK: Liberals 45%, Conservatives 33%, NDP 11%, Greens 8%

NOVA SCOTIA: Liberals 44%, Conservatives 28%, NDP 19%, Greens 6%

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR: Liberals 49%, Conservatives 28%, NDP 20%, Greens 2%

There is also a clear divide between the largest cities in Canada, and all the smaller urban areas, suburban areas, and rural areas of the country.

The Liberals lead in Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, meaning the Conservatives are strong in most of the rest of the country.

Gender gap

The poll also shows a substantial gender gap, with the Conservatives leading the Liberals big time among men 42% to 30%, while the Liberals lead by a nearly equal margin among women, 40% to 29%.

Trudeau approval

Justin Trudeau’s net approval rating remains in the negative, with 45% approving and 52% disapproving. This represents a slight gain for him, as he was at 44% approval and 54% disapproval in July.

Overall, Trudeau is by far the most unpopular leader, and has the largest net negative rating.

By contrast, O’Toole has 30% approval, 31% disapproval, and 39% still yet to form an opinion, while Jagmeet Singh has 43% approval, 41% disapproval, and 16% not having an opinion.

In Quebec only, Bloc Leader Yves Francois-Blanchet as 47% approval, 35% disapproval, and 19% saying they don’t have an opinion.

O’Toole’s ratings will likely stabilize at a higher approval/disapproval level as more people make up their minds. Currently he is at 68% approval, and just 6% disapproval among Conservative voters, with 26% still not decided, but who will mostly end up supporting the new party leader. Many Liberals (43%), and NDP (38%) have yet to make up their minds, but very few of those party’s supporters support O’Toole and most will end up disapproving.

Interestingly, and a sign of possible room for growth, is that 28% of Bloc supports have a favourable view of O’Toole, compared to 28% who disapprove. With the Bloc having de-emphasized separatism lately, and having taken a hard-line on the radical-left destruction of monuments, there could be growing convergence between a pro-Western world Conservative Party and the views of some Bloc voters.

In total, these numbers are good for O’Toole, as they show the party retains a powerful core base, and has room to grow in key regions of the country.

For the Liberals, the fact that they are tied despite the massive support they get from the co-opted establishment press and the immense amounts of money they’re spreading across the country has got to be concerning.

Spencer Fernando

Photo – YouTube