Nearly half the country views O’Toole unfavourably according to a new Angus Reid poll.
In the 2019 election, the Angus Reid poll was quite accurate.
The poll is also seen as unbiased, giving results that are often good for the Conservatives when the political climate seems to indicate that, while showing the Liberals in a strong position when that would make sense.
I say this since polling has understandably hemorrhaged credibility as of late, but the Angus Reid poll is still quite credible.
And that’s not good news for Erin O’Toole.
In the wake of a desperate campaign to try and buy into the narratives pushed by the Liberal Party, which culminated in the expulsion of Derek Sloan from the CPC under an obviously cynical pretext, the Conservative leader has seen his image worsen according to the latest Angus Reid poll.
The survey was conducted from January 20th, to January 24th. Sloan was removed on the 20th. And in the week up to that, the Conservatives had been clearly buying into Liberal-messaging, with O’Toole rapidly shifting from ‘true blue’ to ‘centrist & moderate.’
So, what are the results?
Erin O’Toole is the most unpopular federal leader.
32% have a favourable view of him, compared to 47% who have an unfavourable view.
Since the last Angus Reid poll in November of 2020, O’Toole’s favourable ratings are down 4 points, while his unfavourable ratings are up 5 points.
More concerning for the Conservatives is that in September of 2020, 30% had a favourable view, while 31% had an unfavourable view, so the more Canadians are seeing of O’Toole most people forming a view on him for the first time have a negative view, with very few people forming new positive opinions of him.
Also of concern for the Conservatives is that just 6% view O’Toole ‘very favourably,’ while 23% view him ‘very unfavourably,’ so intense opinions are more on the negative side.
O’Toole has the worst net favourability rating at -15. Jagmeet Singh is at +8, Yves-Francois Blanchet is at +5, and Annamie Paul is at -1.
Justin Trudeau is at +2, with 50% approving of him and 48% disapproving.
O’Toole has problems within Conservative Party
As many people predicted, O’Toole’s removal of Derek Sloan (and particularly the way it was done), could cause him problems within the Conservative Party, and the polls show him with by far the weakest internal support compared to other party leaders.
63% of those who voted Conservative in the last election approve of O’Toole, while 23% have a negative view. 14% still don’t know.
For O’Toole to have less than 2/3rds approval among CPC voters at this point is a big issue for him.
By contrast, 89% of NDP voters and 83% of Bloc voters support their respective party leaders. Even new Green leader Annamie Paul has 65% support among past Green voters.
And among Liberal voters, 85% approve of Trudeau, compared to 13% who don’t.
O’Toole less popular than Scheer
Erin O’Toole is also less popular than Andrew Scheer was at the same point. Scheer had the approval of 35% of Canadians at this point in his leadership, while 36% disapproved.
By contrast, Erin O’Toole is both less popular at 32% approval, while many more disapprove, with 47% having a negative view.
If this continues, then it may be the case that O’Toole’s rapid attempt to shift from ‘true blue’ to the same kind of ‘liberal-lite’ he accused Peter MacKay of planning during the leadership race will serve only to alienate Conservatives, while failing to win over any new voters.
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