While Justin Trudeau may not be popular, he is being helped by the fact that O’Toole is far less popular.
According to the latest Angus Reid survey (a pollster that is seen as quite fair and if anything often gives better numbers for the Conservatives than others), Erin O’Toole’s struggles to gain support among Canadians continue.
After hitting a high of 36% favourability in November of 2020, Erin O’Toole’s favourability rating has fallen to 29%.
By contrast, 51% have an unfavourable view.
That puts O’Toole at -22 net approval, by far the worst of all the major party leaders.
Net approval for Jagmeet Singh is at +3, Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet is at +7, and Green Party leader Annamie Paul is at -7%.
O’Toole has a problem with the ‘intensity’ of his favourability/unfavourability ratings, with just 6% giving him a ‘very favourable’ score, while 26% give him a ‘very unfavourable’ score.
Ironically, this mirrors Justin Trudeau’s long-term political problem, in that those who approve tend to be less motivated than those who disapprove.
Unfortunately for O’Toole, while Trudeau generates more strongly negative views (35% strongly disapprove), Trudeau also has more strong positive views, with 9% strongly approving.
Further, Trudeau’s overall approval is at 45%, with disapproval at 53%, giving Trudeau a -8 net approval rating, a full 14 points higher than O’Toole’s -22 rating.
So right now, Trudeau doesn’t have to be popular to win, he just has to be more popular than O’Toole, which isn’t a tough job so far.
Important convention speech
This shows that O’Toole has a big job to accomplish with his upcoming CPC convention speech, as he needs to turn around these negative public perceptions fast for his party to have a chance of defeating the Liberals.
Otherwise, the growing chatter of discontent around O’Toole’s big flip flops and abandonment of True-Blue branding – which is so far only demoralizing the base while failing to win new voters – will only grow louder and louder.
Photo – YouTube