Positive opinions of O’Toole drop.
A new survey by Abacus Data shows more troubling numbers for the Conservatives.
First, while many people bring up legitimate questions about Abacus due to perceived Liberal connections, they were relatively accurate in the 2019 election. They were off by 1 point on Liberal support (34% predicted vs 33% result), and two points on Conservative support (32% predicted vs 34% result).
So, not perfect, but not too far off.
If they are anywhere close now, then the Conservatives have reason to be concerned, because the latest numbers aren’t good.
Following the CPC convention and a rise in vaccine shipments (alongside the AstraZeneca debacle of government incompetence), the Liberals have nonetheless risen five points to 38% nationwide.
The Conservatives are up 1 point, to 30%.
The NDP has 17%.
Regionally, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 31% in BC, while the Conservatives lead b 24 points in Alberta and 27 points in Saskatchewan/Manitoba.
In Ontario, the Liberals lead by 16 points over the Conservatives, while in Quebec the Liberals lead the Bloc 37% to 30%, with the Conservatives far back at 17%.
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead the Conservatives 51% to 26%.
Opinions of Trudeau remain split, with 40% expressing a negative opinion, while 39% have a positive opinion.
O’Toole fares worse, with 19% expressing a positive view, compared to 33% who express a negative view.
O’Toole’s positive impression numbers are down 3 points, while negative views are up 2 points.
The survey shows O’Toole having lost net positive impressions across the political spectrum, with his net positive impressions among right-wing voters down 14 points, and his net positive impression among centrist voters down 11 points.
This raises the concern that O’Toole’s rapid shift from ‘true blue’ to ‘moderate centrist’ has simultaneously alienated conservative voters while failing to win over centrists.
The Liberals are likely looking at numbers like this and seeing an election window emerging. There will be a period of time in which massive government spending and some sense of normality returning will create a temporary boom, before the longer-term consequences of immense money printing and government spending are felt.
In that window, the Liberals see their chance to get a majority, and that’s why everyone needs to be on guard against the Liberals finding any sneaky excuse to trigger an election.
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