Only in a society built upon cheap and abundant energy could we have had the luxury of ignoring reality for so long.
And so, after a long and largely peaceful dream, we have been forced to awaken.
Our slumber was first disturbed two years ago, as a virus – and an authoritarian and often irrational response from our leaders – overturned our lives.
Now, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we have been fully jolted into awareness.
Dreams and delusions are closely linked.
Both tend to be an internal experience, and are based upon a rejection of reality.
And both can’t last for long when reality finally intrudes.
As we awaken to a world in which raw materials, oil, gas, weapons, and money are shown to be more relevant and important than ever before, the delusion of an easy ‘green energy’ transition has begun to fade away.
Across the world, those who sought to reshape societies and purposely make energy more expensive are on the defensive, realizing how those policies not only emboldened & enriched Russia, but have left us shockingly vulnerable to a large disruption of our living standards.
Stunning prices at the pump, surging inflation, combined with economic stagnation will rapidly impact the lives of millions of Canadians, and no amount of rhetoric about a ‘just transition’ or ‘green energy future’ will be able to distract from the huge financial hit.
There is a deep irony here.
Only in a world of abundant cheap energy provided by oil & gas could a country or civilization have the luxury of losing touch with what underpins our prosperity.
In a very real sense, energy = freedom, and the more abundant and cheap energy is the more freedom we can theoretically have.
Imagine for a moment that a source of infinite energy was found.
Life would change in a dramatic way.
There would be massive deflation as the cost of producing goods would dramatically decline.
Living standards would surge.
Poverty would rapidly disappear.
A key reason for wars – the acquisition of cheap energy – would be eliminated, increasing prospects for peace.
Authoritarian states that maintain control through the financial resources their energy reserves generate would be less tenable.
And – perhaps most importantly for the long-term – our focus could shift towards the exploration of space and humanity spreading into the stars.
Cheap energy is essential to freedom, and freedom is essential to the innovation and creativity that moves humanity forward.
Of course, this all sounds quite utopian and unrealistic. Certainly, humanity does not possess the ability to generate unlimited energy (the sun theoretically provides unlimited energy but we are unable to harness it efficiently enough at this point).
But, have you noticed how the abundance of cheap oil & natural gas brings our world closer to that hopeful vision?
The opposite is also true. When oil & gas isn’t produced in large enough quantities to keep energy prices low, things in the world get much worse.
How did our society forget this?
At one time, saying any of this would have been completely unnecessary.
Previous generations knew almost instinctively how important cheap energy was.
Those who were born in the early part of the 20th century witnessed first hand the stunning advances that were made possible by oil & gas.
The auto industry, the aviation industry, the trucking industry, all completely revolutionized how we traveled, how we worked, how we produced, and generated a level of wealth that dwarfed everything that came before.
The power of cheap energy was so immense that even countries with almost no energy reserves, such as Japan, were able to thrive through trading relationships with nations abundant in oil & gas.
Oil & gas so thoroughly revolutionized our lives that many people assumed that cheap energy and abundance was the natural order of things, and would remain in place no matter what we did.
That led them to shift their attention to the negative aspect of oil & gas production, either forgetting or simply ignoring that the positives far outweighed those negatives.
Oil & gas became a taboo for some, with irrationality taking over in place of reasoned discussion.
This is how the green delusion began to spread.
People simply felt that oil & gas production was ‘bad’ and shouldn’t happen in their countries, ignoring that you can’t simply demand a new source of cheap energy come into existence whenever you want.
If green energy sources aren’t at the place where they can be more efficient than oil & gas (and they still have an incredibly long way to go), then the only thing that reducing oil & gas production will do is drive up prices, increase poverty, and enrich those who keep producing, which just so happens to be countries like Russia.
Undeniable consequences
As I’ve said before, reality can be evaded for a while, but not forever.
And reality is sure hitting hard now.
Here’s the GasWizard.ca price prediction for Tuesday, March 8th:
Price Prediction for Tuesday 8th of March 2022(prices in cents/litre)
City Regular Premium Diesel Toronto: 184.9 209.9 197.9 Montreal: 195.9 218.9 196.9 Vancouver: 209.9 230.9 213.9 Calgary: 181.9 205.9 2 183.9 -1 Barrie: 184.9 209.9 197.9 Brampton: 184.9 209.9 197.9 Cornwall: 170.9 190.9 169.9 Edmonton: 179.9 203.9 2 182.9 GTA: 184.9 209.9 197.9 Halifax: 175.6 184.6 192.4 Hamilton: 184.9 209.9 197.9 Kamloops: 185.9 207.9 182.9 Kelowna: 186.9 208.9 179.9 Kingston: 184.9 201.9 189.9 London: 183.9 208.9 197.9 Markham: 184.9 209.9 197.9 Mississauga: 184.9 209.9 197.9 Moncton: 179.9 186.6 197.6 Niagara: 183.9 208.9 197.9 Oakville: 184.9 209.9 197.9 Oshawa: 184.9 209.9 197.9 Ottawa: 183.9 207.9 193.9 Peterborough: 184.9 200.9 187.9 Quebec City: 183.9 210.9 204.9 Regina: 185.9 201.9 -4 185.9 11 Saskatoon: 185.9 201.9 -4 185.9 11 St Catharines: 184.9 209.9 197.9 St John (NB): 179.9 186.7 197.6 St. John’s: 191.7 197.7 213.4 Sudbury: 194.9 207.9 178.9 Thunder Bay: 189.9 205.9 184.9 Victoria: 204.9 218.9 199.9 Waterloo: 184.9 209.9 197.9 Windsor: 183.9 208.9 197.9 Winnipeg: 185.9 205.9 187.9
And on top of all that, the carbon tax is set to rise on April 1st.
There’s no reason this should be happening in a country like Canada.
We should be largely immune from energy price disruptions, given that we have a relatively small population combined with a high level of technological advancement and immense energy resources.
Only a failure of vision, and an absurd adherence to the green delusion could have left us at the whim of geopolitical shocks and foreign sources of energy.
Yet, here we are.
In the coming days, weeks, and months, the cost of years of delusional green policies, higher taxes, money printing, and government overspending will no longer be avoidable.
Around the world, people are waking up to the new reality. Elon Musk – one of the greatest minds in our world today – is acknowledging the need for more oil & gas production, even though that would negatively impact his business:
“Hate to say it, but we need to increase oil & gas output immediately.
Extraordinary times demand extraordinary measures.”
Hate to say it, but we need to increase oil & gas output immediately.
Extraordinary times demand extraordinary measures.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 5, 2022
“Obviously, this would negatively affect Tesla, but sustainable energy solutions simply cannot react instantaneously to make up for Russian oil & gas exports.”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1499909806504779779
Going forward, we can either acknowledge the mistakes of the past and recommit ourselves to being a nation of freedom built on a foundation of cheap and abundant energy, or we can double-down on an approach that leads to poverty and national decline.
For Canada’s sake, and for the sake of a more peaceful and prosperous world, let’s hope the green delusion is over.
Spencer Fernando
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