A significant blow to the narrative being pushed by the Charest campaign.
A new Abacus Data survey shows that – contrary to the narrative being pushed by the Charest campaign – Pierre Poilievre has the ability to dramatically increase the pool of voters who would consider voting Conservative.
The survey is intriguing in large part due to the fact that some consider Abacus a ‘liberal-friendly’ pollster. While some – myself included – have in the past criticized the wording of their questions, their record in the last few elections was quite strong. Further, the fact that they aren’t seen as ‘pro-conservative’ makes it more interesting when they show results that deviate from the established narrative.
In their survey, Abacus focused on Pierre Poilievre’s campaign launch video, where he said he was “running for Prime Minister to give you back control of your own life,” and discussed the rising cost-of-living and the need for government to be a ‘servant, not a master.’
Of those who responded to the survey in English, 52% said they agreed with Poilievre’s message, compared to 24% who said they disagreed. 24% said they neither agreed nor disagreed.
Intensity of opinion was also positive for Poilievre, with 23% strongly agreeing with his message, compared to 13% who strongly disagreed.
Already, the 52% agreeing with Poilievre’s message is very positive.
And a closer look at the numbers reveals even more interesting information.
Support across various parties
Unsurprisingly, 79% of CPC voters agreed with Poilievre’s message, while 18% had no opinion and only a tiny fraction disagreed.
83% of PPC supporters agreed, meaning Poilievre should be able to win back some of the 5% of the electorate who voted PPC in the last election.
What is most interesting, however, is that large segments of Liberal & even NDP voters liked what Poilievre said.
36% of the Liberal voters agreed with his message, compared to 39% who disagreed and 26% who had no opinion.
Among NDP voters, 40% agreed while 38% disagreed, with 22% expressing no opinion.
Even many Green voters were supportive, with 37% agreeing, 23% disagreeing, and 40% expressing no opinion.
This widespread appeal demonstrates that Poilievre has tapped into something that resonates across the political spectrum by focusing on the cost-of-living crisis that has affected people in every part of our nation.
Youth appeal continues
As you’ve likely seen discussed in some of my past articles, Poilievre has demonstrated an appeal to young Canadians that is unique when compared to past Conservative leaders/leadership candidates.
And that continues in this survey.
Among Canadians age 18-29, 53% supported his message, compared to 18% who opposed it.
Among those age 30-44, 59% supported it, while just 15% opposed it.
Among those age 45-59%, 53% supported it and 24% were opposed.
And among those aged 60 and above, 45% supported his message and 23% opposed it.
It’s notable that Poilievre’s message found more support than opposition among all age groups, and that it resonated most strongly with young people, a segment of the population the Conservative Party has struggled to win over.
Wider appeal, more potential to win
By far the most important aspect of the survey’s findings was the accessible voter pool.
This measures how many people would consider voting for a party, whether they currently intend to or not. By definition, a party has the potential to win the votes of anyone who is open to considering it, while being locked out of winning over those who wouldn’t consider it at all.
With that in mind, consider what the Abacus Data survey found about Poilievre’s impact on the potential appeal of the CPC:
Currently, Abacus has the CPC at 41% when it comes to accessible voters, which is a relatively low number since it means winning a majority would require getting almost every single voter, who is even open to considering it, out to vote.
Yet, when asked how open they would be to voting CPC if Pierre Poilievre was the party leader, 49% said they would be open to it, compared to 39% who said they would not.
That 8% point bump in those willing to vote CPC with Poilievre at the helm could make all the difference between the Liberal/NDP pact staying in power, and the Conservatives winning.
Along those lines, the survey showed 32% of Liberals open to voting Conservative if Poilievre was the leader, and even 27% of New Democrats open to doing so.
Both the Liberals & NDP have talked a big game about addressing the rising cost-of-living, but the cost-of-living keeps increasing the more the Liberals & NDP implement their agenda. Thus, there is a growing pool of disillusioned voters out there who are clearly open to the message Poilievre is sharing.
A serious blow to the Charest narrative
The results of this Abacus Data survey are a huge boost to the already surging momentum of the Poilievre campaign, as they help to confirm the central argument he is making, that a pro-freedom, limited-government, principled conservative approach can have widespread appeal in Canada.
The results are also a serious blow to the narrative being pushed by the Jean Charest campaign.
Charest has tried to argue that Poilievre is ‘extreme’ and ‘disqualified’, claiming the CPC would have less appeal if Poilievre was in charge.
Yet, the Abacus poll demonstrates that Poilievre would significantly increase the number of Canadians open to voting Conservative, and that Poilievre’s appeal can go beyond partisan differences. Poilievre also has the potential to increase the CPC’s support among young Canadians, which could be a game-changer in a general election.
This makes Charest’s campaign look more and more bitter and out-of-touch, as the facts simply don’t line up with his narrative.
Crowds mean something
Poilievre’s campaign now more resembles a movement than a traditional leadership race effort. He is attracting crowds that are bigger than anything we’ve seen in a very long time in this country.
His message matches the times, with statist policies having contributed to making life more and more expensive and a growing swath of Canadians looking for a real principled alternative that gives them more power over their own future.
I am Alberta bound… rally starting within minutes. pic.twitter.com/0sd8muwC1t
— Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) April 13, 2022
The crowds flocking to Poilievre’s campaign events are indeed indicative of something real, and as the Abacus survey shows there are a growing number of Canadians willing to support Poilievre’s message.
Of course, we know that this means the attacks by Charest and the establishment press will continue to get even more desperate and unhinged, so those of us who support a pro-freedom agenda will need to stand up for the truth more strongly than ever before.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – Twitter
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