His numbers among actual CPC members are almost certainly even better.
Amid all the ‘sturm und drang’ being whipped up by the Charest & Brown campaigns, a fundamental aspect of Canadian political reality hasn’t changed:
Pierre Poilievre is by far the most popular politician among Conservative Canadians.
While the membership sales numbers made this obvious, even more evidence has rolled in.
According to a new survey by Narrative Research, Pierre Poilievre retains a dominant lead among Canadians who support the CPC:
“Conservative supporters are most likely to support Pierre Poilievre as the next party leader (45%), and only two in ten indicate that they would not choose any of the listed candidates (21%). Jean Charest is less preferred among supporters of the CPC than among Canadians in general (14%), and one in ten Conservative supporters prefer Patrick Brown (10%). Leslyn Lewis (4%), Scott Aitchison (4%) and Roman Baber (1%) are least preferred among supporters of the CPC.”
Charest loses to “none of the above”
If you read the info above and did a double-take, yes, you did read it right:
Charest loses to “none of the above.”
21% of Conservative supporters say they wouldn’t support any of the candidates, while just 14% support Charest.
Charest is a full 31 points behind Poilievre, with Brown even further back.
Bigger lead among members?
It’s essential to note here that among CPC members – rather than supporters – Poilievre likely has even stronger support, especially if his campaign has sold about half of all memberships in the party.
Poilievre endures amid media attacks
Perhaps even more impressive than his dominance among CPC supporters is how Poilievre has held up well among the general public.
The media has been doing everything possible to falsely demonize Poilievre as a ‘racist’ and ‘extremist,’ with the Charest & Brown campaigns recycling media attacks, and the media recycling Charest & Brown attacks on Poilievre in a never-ending feedback loop.
They have tried to implant the narrative that Poilievre is unpopular among the general public, while Charest is beloved.
The problem is that narrative is completely fake.
Even after such an obviously manufactured attempt to build up Charest, he stands at 20% among the general public in the survey, while Poilievre is at 18%.
Considering the margin-of-error of surveys tend to be around 2-3% (though a margin-of-error was not described in this one), Poilievre & Charest are tied among the general public.
As you look at those numbers, I would like you to consider how this shows how weak Charest really is.
Poilievre has held up well under ruthless and unrelenting attack, dominating among CPC supporters and essentially tied among the general public.
This means that Charest’s numbers would crumble under the kind of attack Poilievre has faced, thus dividing the CPC internally and falling flat among the general public if the media turned their propaganda apparatus against him.
Winning the youth vote
As we’ve talked about before, the Conservatives have the opportunity to win the youth vote away from the Liberals & NDP, in what would be a historic realignment in Canadian politics.
But that is only possible because of the message being shared by Pierre Poilievre, as he has focused on how carbon taxes, money printing, budget deficits, and elitist gatekeepers have brutally harmed the prospects of millions of Canadians – including many young Canadians.
With Trudeau and Singh offering emotional wokism rather than economic prosperity, the CPC could win huge.
The survey shows that Charest does marginally better among Canadians above 55+, meaning Poilievre does proportionally better among younger Canadians. (Poilievre leads big with all age groups among CPC supporters).
This tracks with other polls that have shown Poilievre doing very well among young Canadians.
If Poilievre wins the CPC leadership, the opportunity for this historic political realignment exists. It doesn’t exist under Charest, as he represents the same failed status quo as Trudeau & Singh, the status quo that young Canadians are rejecting in droves.
The fact is, we are seeing more and more proof that Jean Charest is the candidate of the discredited political establishment, while Poilievre and his supporters are the representatives of a renewal in this country.
Spencer Fernando
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