POLL: Conservatives Far More Trusted Than Liberals On The Biggest Issue Facing Canadians

The CPC also holds a narrow lead in national voter intentions.

With inflation remaining elevated, credit card debt at a record high, and Canadians even more pessimistic about their financial prospects than during the nadir of the 2008 financial crisis, a new survey shows Canadians trust the Conservatives over the Liberals when it comes to the cost-of-living and the economy.

According to the latest Abacus Data poll, the Conservatives are trusted most by 44% of Canadians on the economy, compared to the Liberals at just 22%.

The Conservatives also lead on dealing with the rising cost-of-living at 32% to the Liberals at 15% and NDP at 16%.

There is a near three-way tie on healthcare, with the NDP at 23%, the Conservatives at 22%, and the Liberals at 21%.

On crime & public safety, the Conservatives hold another big lead, with 38% to the Liberals at 16%.

The Liberals lead on climate change and the environment with 25% to the NDP at 13% (Conservatives are at 10%), and lead on dealing with the Russian invasion of Ukraine with 31% to the Conservatives at 22%.

Notably, when asked who would best deal with the threat posed by China and Russia, 26% pick the Conservatives while 24% pick the Liberals.

This indicates that voters likely appreciate how the Liberals have managed the humanitarian aspects of Canada’s assistance to Ukraine, while having doubts about the Liberals when it comes to strengthening Canada’s crumbling military.

The NDP leads on a few issues as well, as they are ahead of the Liberals 29% to 27% on reconciliation with Indigenous Canadians, and on inequality and poverty, where they lead the Liberals 27% to 19%.

The biggest lead for the Conservatives comes on the question of who would best address the lack of freedom in Canada, where 49% pick the Conservatives. 12% pick the Liberals on that question, and just 3% pick the NDP.

Conservatives lead in national vote intention

Nationally, 34% say they will vote Conservative, compared to 31% who say they will vote Liberal.

Since the last Abacus Data survey in September, the Conservatives are down 1 point, and the Liberals are up 1 point. Both changes are within the margin of error.

Here are the regional breakdowns:

BC – Conservatives 33%, Liberals 24%, NDP 25%

Alberta – Conservatives 52%, Liberals 22%, NDP 19%

Saskatchewan/Manitoba – Conservatives 50%, Liberals 15%, NDP 23%

Ontario – Conservatives 37%, Liberals 34%, NDP 18%

Quebec – Liberals 35%, Bloc 29%, Conservatives 18%, NDP 10%

Atlantic – Liberals 49%, Conservatives 27%, NDP 17%.

Key takeaways

With a small national lead, and a lead in the West + Ontario, the Conservatives are showing early indications that they can recreate the winning Harper formula: Dominate Western Canada and add rural and suburban Ontario, plus a smattering of seats in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

Of course, we are far from an election, and there will be ups and downs in the polls.

What is most interesting however is that on the biggest issue facing Canadians – the cost of living – the Conservatives more than double the Liberals.

77% of respondents picked the rising cost of living as the biggest issue they face, ahead of healthcare at 47% and the economy at 45% (people could pick their top 3).

This demonstrates that Poilievre is so far winning the rhetorical battle on the causes and fixes for rising cost of living, with his credibility being strengthened by having predicted that Liberal/NDP/Bank of Canada actions would drive up prices.

Spencer Fernando

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