The riding has been won by the Liberals since 2015, and they won it again in the recent by-election.
The Liberal Party held onto the riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore, winning a riding that has been in their hands since the 2015 election.
The Liberals improved their margin, with former provincial cabinet minister Charles Sousa winning by a roughly 14% points.
In the 2021 federal election, the Liberal candidate had won 44.94% of the vote, while the CPC candidate won 38.68%. The NDP won 9.75%.
In the by-election, the Liberals won 51.2%, while the CPC won 37.3%.
The biggest story is the collapse of the NDP, who fell to just 4.9%.
Add those almost 5 points from the NDP to the Liberals, and that brings the Liberals to just about 50%, close to where they finished.
So – amid an overall huge decline in turnout (just 26.48% in preliminary results) – it becomes clear that the Conservatives held most of their support, while the NDP fell dramatically and the Liberals were the main beneficiary.
This could speak to the possibility that by propping up the Liberals, the NDP has left many of their voters wondering why they shouldn’t just vote directly for the Liberals.
That trend – a weaker NDP – could be an issue for the Conservatives.
Some had tried to claim the by-election was a referendum on the Trudeau government & new CPC Leader Pierre Poilievre, but the CPC seemed unwilling to oblige, putting little effort into the riding.
Poilievre did not campaign heavily there, while the Liberals were more active.
It’s a bit of a “what came first, the chicken or the egg” type question.
Did the CPC make little effort in the riding because they felt they couldn’t get a good result and thus didn’t want to lose much political capital?
Or, did they fail to get a good result because they didn’t put much effort in?
Alternatively, is the real issue here the fact that the CPC may have to figure out how to win in Liberal-held ridings without a strong NDP eating into the Liberal vote?
All of these questions are being asked, and while one by-election doesn’t change much, we are starting to see the development of narratives that will gain importance going forward.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube