Further rate hikes likely said Federal Reserve in statement.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point.
It’s the smallest rate hike since the most recent hiking cycle began.
The target federal funds range is now 4.50% – 4.75%.
In their statement on the rate hike announcement, the Federal Reserve gave clear indications that rate hikes will continue:
“The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”
Many stocks initially sold-off following the news, as the markets had been hoping for indications the rate hikes would be paused.
Contrast with Canada
While the Federal Reserve is anticipating further rate hikes, the most recent Bank of Canada interest rate hike statement went in a different direction:
“If economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR outlook, Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases.”
This divergence reflects Canada’s less productive economy, higher level of consumer indebtedness, and our much higher reliance upon the housing market.
The bigger the spread between Canadian and U.S. interest rates, the more the Canadian Dollar could potentially weaken.
During his press conference following the rate hike, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was asked about the divergence:
The Fed appears to be on a different path than the @bankofcanada. pic.twitter.com/kF88hHgUtH
— Steve Saretsky (@SteveSaretsky) February 1, 2023
You can read the full Federal Reserve statement below:
“Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated.
Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship and is contributing to elevated global uncertainty. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.”
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube