Trudeau’s poll numbers are looking worse and worse as crime surges, the Chinese Communist Party interference scandal grows, and the economy declines.
A key warning sign for a governing party is when the sitting Prime Minister starts falling behind on the question of who Canadians want to fill that spot.
Incumbency offers a powerful advantage, as the Prime Minister is – by definition – already in the job and thus is a known quantity, while the Opposition Leader is more of an unknown by virtue of not holding the top job.
And so, when Canadians start to look at the Opposition Leader as a better choice for PM, it tells us that the incumbent is rapidly losing support.
According to a new Nanos poll, that’s exactly what’s happening.
On the question of who Canadians prefer as Prime Minister, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre leads:
“Preferred Prime Minister Polling:
Poilievre: 29% (-1)
Trudeau: 26% (-)
Singh: 16% (+1)
Blanchet: 4% (-1)
May: 4% (-)
Bernier: 4% (-)Unsure: 17%
Nanos Research / March 24, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone
(% Change With March 17, 2023)”
Preferred Prime Minister Polling:
Poilievre: 29% (-1)
Trudeau: 26% (-)
Singh: 16% (+1)
Blanchet: 4% (-1)
May: 4% (-)
Bernier: 4% (-)Unsure: 17%
Nanos Research / March 24, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone
(% Change With March 17, 2023)
— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) March 28, 2023
Poilievre had long trailed Trudeau on that question in the Nanos poll, but has been steadily making up ground. He has now led in a few Nanos surveys, showing that momentum is moving his way.
Meanwhile, these are very bad numbers for the Liberals. For the sitting PM to be at just 26% is a position of significant weakness. Consider that the Liberals have won 33% and 32% of the popular vote in the past two elections, both of which were the worst popular vote percentages for a party that won the most seats. The Liberals have lost the popular vote in the past two federal elections. And now, Trudeau is even below those modest numbers when it comes to the number of Canadians who prefer him as Prime Minister.
This demonstrates that Trudeau is losing his more ‘reasonable’ supporters, those who are willing to think critically and consider other options. It’s no coincidence that Trudeau supporters are becoming increasingly cult-like and rabid, because he is now down to the most radicalized core who become even more radical as they feel power slipping away.
Nationally, the Liberals are also struggling, polling at just 29%, well-below their weak 2019 & 2021 showings. The Conservatives are above their 2019 & 2021 levels, with 35%.
“Federal Polling:
CPC: 35% (+1)
LPC: 29% (-4)
NDP: 19% (+1)
BQ: 6% (-2)
GPC: 5% (+3)
PPC: 4% (-1)Nanos Research / March 24, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone
(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)”
Federal Polling:
CPC: 35% (+1)
LPC: 29% (-4)
NDP: 19% (+1)
BQ: 6% (-2)
GPC: 5% (+3)
PPC: 4% (-1)Nanos Research / March 24, 2023 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone
(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
Check out federal details on @338Canada at: https://t.co/kg1xi0UiUP pic.twitter.com/NIKfLTvxap
— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) March 28, 2023
The Liberals are getting into dangerous territory for an incumbent party. After nearly a decade in power, there’s nothing they can point to that has improved. Instead, things are worse for Canadians. Life is less affordable, crime is surging, the nation is more divided, our institutions are under siege, and there is overall malaise in the nation.
With all of that in mind, it’s no surprise that people are looking to the Opposition for leadership and a change in direction.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube
