Authoritarian states often look strong from the outside, but this is merely a cover for their immense fragility. By contrast, democracies are far stronger than they appear.
The last 24 hours or so in Russia have been shocking.
Yevgeny Prigozhin – the head of the Wagner mercenary group – launched what he called a “march for justice,” leading Wagner fighters (many of whom are criminals released from prison after they agreed to fight against Ukraine) on a march to Moscow demanding that Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov be replaced.
Prigozhin also railed against the war itself, saying it wasn’t necessary, Ukraine & NATO weren’t a threat to Russia, and the war was launched to enable Russia’s oligarchs to loot Ukraine.
For some time, Prigozhin has been channeling the increasing frustration of elements of Russian society. Despite strict controls on speech and the flow of information, Russia’s massive losses of personnel and equipment have been impossible to fully obscure.
And so, Prigozhin and many Wagner fighters left their positions in Ukraine and moved into two Russian cities, Rostov and Voronoezh.
While many wondered whether the initial reports were real more and more videos and images emerged of Wagner forces on the move. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin – looking quite stressed – gave a speech calling Wagner forces ‘traitors’ and vowing aggressive action. Putin even claimed Wagner’s actions were a “stab in the back”:
WATCH: Putin's address to the nation, with English subtitles pic.twitter.com/KKZy2XQhK3
— BNO News (@BNONews) June 24, 2023
Following the reported destruction of a few planes and helicopters, and the almost-unimpeded advance of Wagner forces deeper into Russia, it appears a deal of some kind has been reached:
“Mutinous Russian mercenary fighters who surged most of the way to Moscow have agreed to turn back to avoid bloodshed, their leader said on Saturday, in a de-escalation of what had become a major challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.
The fighters of the Wagner private army run by former Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin were already most of the way to the capital, having captured the city of Rostov and set off on an 1,100 km (680 mile) race to Moscow.
In an audio message, Prigozhin said the fighters would return to base because of the risk of blood being spilled.
A deal to halt further movement of Wagner fighters across Russia in return for guarantees of safety for the rebels was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, his office said.
Earlier, Prigozhin said his men were on a “march for justice” to remove corrupt and incompetent Russian commanders he blames for botching the war in Ukraine.”
Weakness is the one thing authoritarian dictators can’t afford to show
While the Wagner coup may be short-lived, this has been a disastrous 24 hours for Russia.
Remember, dictators stay in power through fear. People fear speaking out, and people fear offering alternatives when they know they could be severely punished for doing so. This fear extends out from the inner circle of the regime into the entire society itself, suppressing dissent while also suppressing the creativity and innovation that independent thinking generates.
The problem of course is that systems built on fear are incredibly brittle. They appear strong only because the lack of debate and criticism of the regime gives the appearance of consensus. But that ‘consensus’ is fake. It’s akin to an abusive relationship in which one spouse appears completely docile and never disagrees, but only because they are being threatened and physically abused behind closed doors.
When fear begins to evaporate, the power of a dictator can crumble at a rapid pace.
Thus, showing any kind of weakness is a huge problem for a dictator.
And weakness is exactly what the world is seeing right now when it comes to Vladimir Putin.
First of all, Putin showed that he is unable to control Wagner. He had to beg them to stop their advance, and the dictator of Belarus had to intervene.
Wagner turned back because Prigozhin told them to turn back, not because Putin told them to turn back.
The world watched Russian helicopters get shot down by Wagner forces. The world watched Wagner troops enter Russian cities and be positively received by the locals.
The world watched Russian troops and security forces refuse to fight against Wagner.
And now, the world is watching as Russia makes a deal with Wagner, after Vladimir Putin accused Wagner of betraying the country.
None of that makes Putin look strong. And when you add on to this the fact that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has become a brutal war of attrition – with Ukraine slowly taking back territory in their recent counterattack – Putin looks like someone who has a much weaker grasp on power than he did when he launched the war.
Of course, the usual Putin-boosters will try to spin the abortive coup to make it look positive for Russia. But imagine if a famous American public figure managed to rally 25,000 members of the Armed Forces, marched into two major cities, shot down half a dozen American military planes, and then managed to extract concessions from the U.S. President that included possible changes to top military personnel.
It would look like an absolute disaster, and would make the U.S. President look incredibly weak.
And this weakness is endemic to authoritarian states.
By so thoroughly curtailing independent thinking, a dictatorial regime is left only with those who submit to the leader at the top, which is why you see such rampant incompetence in authoritarian states. We have watched this play out in Ukraine, as Ukraine’s more democratic and decentralized society has shown much more military innovation and adaptability, while Russia has been rigid and unimaginative during much of the conflict.
The ongoing vindication of Liberal Democracy & ‘The West’
The 20th century represented the triumph of Liberal Democracy.
Fascism and Communism both challenged the Democratic Capitalist nations, and lost. The fascists lost in 1945, and the Communists lost in 1991.
And while Russia and China are attempting to restart the challenge in the 21st century, there is growing evidence that Liberal Democracy not only remains on top, but will gain strength over time.
Keep in mind that when I mention Liberal Democracy, I’m not talking about ‘liberal’ in the sense of the Liberal Party of Canada. Rather, I’m talking about the basic idea of building a society around the pillars of relatively free markets, free elections, and individual rights. Liberal Democracy can encompass a wide range of nations, from left-wing countries to right-wing countries and everything in between. This is also largely synonymous with ‘The West,’ a group that also includes countries like Japan and South Korea.
Now, Liberal Democracies are often seen as weak and fragile, because all their problems are out in the open. Internal divisions are constantly exposed through public debate, the media exposes government corruption, those who lose elections are understandably angry, and foreign powers are able to expose the openness of Western countries to try and tilt the balance of power.
Yet, look at the ongoing strength of Liberal Democratic nations.
The U.S. system was never at any real risk from Trump’s ‘insurrection,’ and the transfer of power to the winner of the election – Joe Biden – went ahead.
In Canada, significant divisions during Covid pressured governments to lift restrictions, and pushed the main opposition party to get more in touch with their base.
Key issues like gender, immigration, and climate policy are all being increasingly debated out in the open, with different Western countries and different jurisdictions within those countries testing out different policies and learning from what works and what doesn’t.
Europe managed to largely shift away from dependence on Russian energy in a short period of time.
In short, the Western system is working, even though the results may feel less than optimal. The flexibility and openness of the West is a strength, not a weakness.
By contrast, China is experiencing significant economic decline, a demographic collapse, and a growing debt crisis.
Russia – as already mentioned – is increasingly mired in chaos with de facto warlords extracting concessions from a weakened dictator.
And let’s not forget that the United States and India – the world’s two largest democracies – are deepening their trade, technology, and military ties:
“US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a series of defense and commercial deals designed to improve military and economic ties between their nations during Thursday’s state visit at the White House.
General Electric Co. plans to jointly manufacture F414 engines with state-owned Indian firm Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. for the Tejas light-combat aircraft, as part of an effort to improve defense- and technology-sharing as China becomes more assertive in the Indo-Pacific.
Biden and Modi also announced new defense collaborations, including progress on an order for MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones made by General Atomics, and an agreement that will allow American Navy ships to undertake major repairs at Indian shipyards.
And the two leaders debuted a series of semiconductor deals designed to take advantage of Indian subsidies intended to bring advanced technology manufacturing to the South Asian nation.”
Confidence in the West
https://twitter.com/SpencerFernando/status/1672396315358027776
With everything that’s happening, it’s important that we take a moment and be proud of what we have managed to build in the Western world. The West has much to be proud of, and we remain a beacon of hope and liberty for people around the world who yearn to live in freedom. And, even when our governments act in ways hostile to Western values, we still have the power to push back and ensure those values are strengthened and preserved.
Instead of giving in to those who seek to undermine the Western world or deceive us into turning our backs on Liberal Democracy, we should instead have confidence in our core values. ‘Freedom & Democracy’ may sound like a slogan or cliché to some, but a free and democratic world is still the greatest potential future for humanity, and the West is the strongest exemplar of that future. That is something worth defending.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube
