If the Liberals were hoping the Conservative surge was a mirage, those hopes have been dashed. The Conservative lead is real, and it is substantial.
When the polls rapidly turn against a political party, the first thing the trailing party does is embrace the wishful thinking that nothing has really changed and the surveys are merely ‘rogue polls.’
The polling industry is often heavily-maligned, but it has steadily improved over time, and it is quite accurate. It is indeed possible to get a pretty good gauge on what the public is thinking by polling about 1,000 people.
Still, that does leave open the possibility of a poll that significantly skews in a direction that is out of line with reality.
That’s what the Liberals have been hoping was happening in the past few weeks.
A series of polls emerged showing the Conservatives with a lead of between 10-7 points in the national popular vote, an increase from the roughly 4-5 point lead they held previously.
Those polls emerged amid rising concern over housing affordability, crime, taxes, the cost-of-living, and Canada’s stagnating economy, meaning the Conservative surge and Liberal decline made sense given events.
And now, we can be quite certain the Conservative lead isn’t based on ‘rogue polls.’ Instead, it is real, and it is substantial.
Abacus shows 9 point Conservative lead
A new Abacus Data survey shows the Conservatives at 37% nationally, ahead of the Liberals at 28%. The NDP is at 19%.
Regionally, the picture is even more dire for the Liberals:
They trail in all regions of the country.
Here is the regional breakdown:
B.C. – Conservatives 45%, NDP 23%, Liberals 20%
Alberta – Conservatives 57%, NDP 14%, NDP 19%
Saskatchewan/Manitoba – Conservatives 52%, Liberals 22%, NDP 22%
Ontario – Conservatives 37%, Liberals 33%, NDP 22%
Quebec – Bloc 35%, Liberals 30%, Conservatives 19%
Atlantic – Conservatives 39%, Liberals 32%, NDP 19%
Here's the regional breakdown for the latest @abacusdataca poll.
Field: Aug 3 to 7, 2023, n=1,650 pic.twitter.com/USro0MIkh4
— David Coletto (@DavidColetto) August 9, 2023
With these numbers the Liberals would be facing a near total wipeout in the West, significant seat losses in Atlantic Canada, and substantial losses in Ontario, where they won many seats in 2021 by a relatively slim margin.
Given the strength of the Bloc in Quebec, these numbers would also make a Liberal-NDP coalition impossible, as they simply wouldn’t have enough seats to get close to a majority.
Something really has changed
The key takeaway here is that we have indeed entered a new moment in Canadian politics.
The Conservatives are now the clear frontrunners, as the Liberals are struggling under the weight of how bad things are in the country on their watch.
As noted before, the Liberals are certainly seeing the same thing in their internal polling, as their coordinated denial of reality and attempt to bring up abortion again show they are feeling desperate.
The Conservatives have wisely chosen now as the time to put out a well-produced biographical ad about Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre’s political message is already proving popular, thus the ad below is all about locking in those positive perceptions and framing the Conservative Leader in a positive way.
We can put the pieces back together. pic.twitter.com/vdhRawtByy
— Pierre Poilievre (@PierrePoilievre) August 8, 2023
Now, nothing is set in stone. The Liberals have overcome significant political challenges in the past, and nothing can be taken for granted. With that said, something certainly seems different this time. At a certain point, people start to tune out the rhetoric of the government when that rhetoric becomes completely disconnected from reality. And once voters decide that it’s time for a change, the momentum for against the government becomes very difficult to reverse.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube
