Ahead of the CPC Convention, polls from Angus Reid and Abacus will be seen by many as further evidence Pierre Poilievre has the party on the right track.
As Conservative Party members gather for their convention in Quebec, a pair of public opinion polls will have attendees – and Conservatives across the country – feeling a sense of momentum.
According to Abacus, the Conservatives have reached the coveted 40% mark, often seen as the number needed to be confident of winning a majority of seats.
The Liberals are far back at 26%, while the NDP has 19%. The Bloc, Greens, and PPC round out the field with 6%, 4%, and 3% respectively.
Of note, the CPC is up 2 points since the previous Abacus survey, while the Bloc and PPC are each down 1 point.
As noted by Abacus, this is the largest lead for the Conservatives in all Abacus polls since the 2015 federal election.
Abacus regional breakdown
The regional numbers are looking awful for the Liberals, with the CPC ahead everywhere except Quebec:
BC: Conservatives 43%, NDP 26%, Liberals 21%
Alberta: Conservatives 63%, NDP 17%, Liberals 15%
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Conservatives 51%, NDP 29%, Liberals 16%
Ontario: Conservatives 38%, Liberals 31%, NDP 20%
Quebec: Bloc 30%, Liberals 28%, Conservatives 25%
Atlantic Canada: Conservatives 42%, Liberals 32%, NDP 21%
As you can see, the Liberals don’t lead in any region of the country in the latest Abacus survey.
Conservatives lead big in Angus Reid survey
The latest Angus Reid poll shows nearly identical federal numbers when compared to the Abacus survey discussed above.
The Conservatives are at 39%, ahead of the Liberals who are at 27%. The Conservatives are up 2 points since the last Angus Reid survey, while the Liberals have lost 2 points. The NDP is down 1 point to 19%, while the Bloc is at 8%.
Angus Reid regional breakdown
Similar to the Abacus poll, the regional breakdown in the Angus Reid survey is brutal for the Liberals.
BC: Conservatives 37%, NDP 28%, Liberals 25%
Alberta: Conservatives 64%, NDP 20%, Liberals 13%
Saskatchewan: Conservatives 60%, NDP 22%, Liberals 14%
Manitoba: Conservatives 48%, NDP 23%, Liberals 23%
Ontario: Conservatives 42%, Liberals 30%, NDP 21%
Quebec: Bloc 35%, Liberals 29%, Conservatives 20%
New Brunswick: Conservatives 43%, Liberals 39%, NDP 11%
Nova Scotia: Conservatives 40%, Liberals 34%, NDP 23%
Newfoundland & Labrador: Conservatives 41%, Liberals 40%, NDP 15%
Liberals struggling amid all demographics
In the Angus Reid poll, the Liberals trail the Conservatives in nearly all demographic groups.
The Conservatives lead among men of all ages. The NDP leads the Conservatives among women aged 18-34, with the Liberals in third place. The Conservatives lead the Liberals among women aged 35-54. The only group among which the Liberals lead is among women aged 55 and above. Even there however, their lead over the CPC has narrowed substantially.
The Abacus Data poll shows something similar.
Among women overall, the Conservatives lead with 34%, ahead of the Liberals at 28% and the NDP at 24%.
Among men overall, the Conservatives lead with 46%, ahead of the Liberals at 24% and the NDP at 14%.
So, while there is still a ‘gender gap,’ the gap is now seen only in the size of the Conservative lead, with the Liberals hemorrhaging support among their traditional voter base.
A boost for Poilievre
Heading into the CPC convention, Pierre Poilievre doesn’t need much of a boost. The Conservatives already have a dominant fundraising lead and Pierre Poilievre’s messaging is clearly resonating with Canadians. Still, more positive momentum is always welcome, and the Abacus/Angus Reid polls will further strengthen Poilievre’s already-strong position.
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