Yes, Supporting Ukraine Is Costly. Failing To Do So Will Cost Us Far More.

InsightSpencerFernando

Many seem unwilling to accept that we face enemies in this world that can’t be swayed by concessions and weakness.

We are increasingly seeing the consequences of years of far-left attempts to undermine the foundation of the Western world.

Turns out, if you call your own country a ‘genocidal’ ‘colonialist’ state long enough, people actually stop wanting to defend it.

And so, we have massive military recruiting shortfalls, severely underfunded Armed Forces, Veterans treated with total disrespect, and a complete loss of any defence of our national interests.

Making matters worse, this undermining of confidence in the West has been exploited by hostile nations like China, Russia, and Iran.

Because we are so divided internally, they are able to exploit those divisions to keep us off balance and keep us from responding to their attempt to weaken the world’s democracies.

They don’t care what they have to say in order to keep us divided, because division is the entire point. Russia often uses propaganda to appeal to those on the right. China often appeals to those on the left. Iran and their proxies often use the rhetoric of ‘decolonization’ and thinly-veiled anti-Semitic rhetoric to appeal to leftists and anti-Semites across the political spectrum.

Russia wants to undermine Western support for Ukraine, China wants to undermine those who want to counter the influence of the Chinese Communist Party, and Iran wants to undermine those who support Israel and who stand against Iran’s sponsorship of terror.

Sadly, our enemies are currently winning.

Support for Ukraine has declined. Entire Western nations – including Canada – are significantly co-opted by the Chinese Communist Party. Iran operates with impunity in Canada because of Trudeau’s weakness, and Canada even voted against Israel at the UN – breaking with our long-term support of Israel and betraying our values as a nation.

Since the Western democracies lack confidence in ourselves, many almost instinctively seek to give in and surrender to dictators and terrorists. If this keeps happening, our enemies will grow stronger at our expense.

And so, we have to wake up before it gets worse.

And make no mistake, it could get much worse.

Many people still seem to think that the actions of China, Russia, and Iran can be influenced by our own personal political preferences.

But that’s not how it works.

If Russia wants to put the Soviet Union back together, if China wants to take Taiwan and weaken the Western democracies, and if Iran wants to destroy Israel and sponsor terror worldwide, what we think personally doesn’t actually matter. It has no bearing on what those countries do. We can’t opt out of it. We can’t escape to another world. We can’t wish it away. We can’t even vote it away.

Our only real choice is whether we respond or not.

For example, a great thread by the Institute for the Study of War goes into great detail on the costs of a Ukrainian defeat.

A few key parts are included below, but I encourage you to read the entire thread:

“NEW: The US has a much higher stake in Russia’s war on Ukraine than most people think.

As Americans consider the costs of continuing to help Ukraine fight the Russians in the coming years, they deserve a careful consideration of the costs of allowing Russia to win.”

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1735366664764702978

“2/ A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit.  Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean.”

“9/ The US would have to station in Europe a large number of stealth aircraft, likely forcing the US to make a terrible choice between keeping enough in Asia to defend Taiwan and its other Asian allies and deterring or defeating a Russian attack on NATO. http://isw.pub/Ukraine121423”

“10/ The entire undertaking would cost a fortune, and the cost would last as long as the Russian threat continues—potentially indefinitely. Almost any other outcome of the Ukraine war is preferable to this one.”

While the ISW analysis is focused on the cost to the United States, Canada – as a close US ally and member of NATO – would also face significant costs as well.

If Russia were to believe the West was so weak that even a NATO country – perhaps a small one like Estonia – could be attacked, such a miscalculation would lead to a massive conflict. Canadian and American troops would be obligated to help save Estonia, meaning a direct shooting war with Russia.

It’s almost certain that many of our own troops would die in such a scenario.

Further, this would lead to a massive global economic slowdown, surging energy costs, along with a desperate last-minute military build up that would run into the tens of billions.

All of this can be avoided if Ukraine – who has fought bravely against a country once thought to have the second most powerful military on Earth – continues to receive assistance.

The fact remains that while it is indeed expensive and costly to help Ukraine now, the alternative would be far more expensive and would put many more Canadians in grave danger.

And the same is true for Israel and Taiwan as well. Supporting fellow democracies against dictators and terror groups now is infinitely preferable to living in a world in which China, Russia, and Iran have total dominance.

Spencer Fernando

Photo – YouTube