Conservatives Over 40%, Lead Liberals By 8 Points In New Poll

InsightSpencerFernando

It’s yet another survey that shows the Poilievre-led CPC leading the Liberals.

A new Mainstreet Research survey shows the Poilievre-led Conservatives leading the Trudeau Liberals by 8 points.

Of significant note is that the CPC are over 40% in the poll nationally, generally seen as the point at which a majority government is much more likely.

Here are the national numbers:

Conservatives – 40.8%

Liberals – 32.7%

NDP – 12.4%

Bloc – 5.2%

PPC – 3.4%

Greens – 2.6%

There is a significant gender gap in the poll, with the CPC leading the Liberals 47.3% to 30.5% among men, while trailing narrowly 35% to 34.4% among women.

Here is the regional breakdown:

Alberta: Conservatives 71.2%, Liberals 15.1%, NDP 2.5%

Atlantic: Liberals 51.3%, Conservatives 28%, NDP 12%

BC: Conservatives 42.1%, Liberals 33.8%, NDP 19.1%

Prairies: Conservatives 57.3%, Liberals 22%, NDP 13.9%

Ontario: Conservatives 38.6%, Liberals 38.6%, NDP 13.1%

Quebec: Liberals 28.5%, Conservatives 28.3%, Bloc 22.3%, NDP 11.9%

While this is just one poll, if this trend holds over time then it signals some very interesting things about Canadian politics.

First, the CPC has potential appeal to a wide range of the population under Poilievre’s leadership. The party has struggled to get past 40% for quite some time, so it is notable that they are over that mark here.

Second, the NDP may be losing support to both the Conservatives and the Liberals. Poilievre has picked up the mantle of advocating for working class Canadians, something Jagmeet Singh has largely abandoned. Meanwhile, those NDP supporters who are scared of Poilievre may be shifting towards the Liberals.

And third, all the fear-mongering about Poilievre being a supposed liability to the party is being proven wrong, as poll after poll shows the Conservatives stronger since he won the leadership race. His message of limited government, individual freedom and standing up for affordability in a country with a surging cost-of-living is clearly resonating with a huge swath of the nation.

Spencer Fernando

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