Conservatives Lead Liberals By Significant Margin In Yet Another Poll

InsightSpencerFernando

Two polls released today – August 25, 2023 – show the Pierre Poilievre-led Conservatives with a dominant lead over the Trudeau Liberals.

Yes, this is an article about the Conservatives leading by over 12 points nationally in a new poll.

No, this isn’t a repost of my article from earlier today.

It is in fact an article about a new Mainstreet Research poll – also released today – which shows the Conservatives with a dominant lead:

“Federal Polling:

CPC: 41% (+7)
LPC: 28% (-5)
NDP: 15% (-3)
BQ: 7% (-1)
GPC: 4% (+2)
PPC: 3% (-2)
Others: 3%

Mainstreet Research / August 23, 2023 / n=1280 / MOE 2.7% / IVR

(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)”

For reference, the Conservatives won a majority in 2011 with 39.6% of the popular vote, ahead of the NDP who finished with 30.6% in that campaign.

As noted by Bryan Breguet on Twitter, today’s Mainstreet poll would give the Conservatives a huge national victory in the seat count:

If the Liberals were hoping the Abacus poll released earlier today (which showed the Conservatives ahead 38% to 26%), was an outlier or a fluke, those hopes were dashed just hours later.

What is notable is the similarity in the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals in both polls, despite the difference their overall numbers.

The Conservatives poll at 38% nationally in the Abacus survey and 41% in the Mainstreet survey, while the Liberals are at 26% and 28% respectively. So, even as each poll finds slightly different support levels for the parties, they are both showing Canadians wanting to move on from the Liberals and put the Conservatives in power.

A steady long-term decline

To see the Liberals drop to the around 28%-26% in the polls may be shocking to some, but it fits with both the undeniable failure of their policies, and the trend of Justin Trudeau’s declining popularity.

The Liberals started out popular, winning 39% of the vote in 2015. But four years later, they dropped to 34% and lost the popular vote, before dropping to 33% and again losing the popular vote in 2021.

The Liberals have been holding on by eking out narrow victories in some key swing ridings, which – while tactically impressive – left them with little margin-for-error if their popularity declined further.

Which it now has.

Expect to see Liberal desperation reach a fevered pitch, as they seek to distract Canadians from the decline of our country on their watch.

Spencer Fernando

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