Failing to prepare for war is the only thing more expensive than preparing for it.
At present, most Canadians have one foot in the door of the new world and the other foot in the old world.
By ‘old world’ and ‘new world’ I’m referring to the world we thought we lived in (the old world of stable alliances, stable trading relationships, and where war was a distant prospect), to the world we actually live in (the new world of unstable alliances, unstable trading relationships, and where the risk of war is escalating no matter how much we want to wish it away).
Slowly but surely, Canadians are starting to get a sense that our country is dangerously unprepared for this new world.
But gaining that understanding is merely the beginning.
And it’s the easy part.
The hard part comes next:
Making the difficult decisions necessary to prepare our country for the worst.
This will challenge our old ways of thinking, and require every political faction in the country to find ways to compromise and let go of old orthodoxies.
The party that will be most directly challenged by this will be the Conservatives.
The party understandably wants to return to balanced budgets after years of Justin Trudeau’s fiscal profligacy.
Spending restraint is inevitable and necessary.
That said, there is an elephant in the room when it comes to balancing the budget:
The need for Canada to rapidly and significantly ramp up military spending.
As one of the world’s largest economies, and as a founding member of NATO, Canada has a lot to offer at a dangerous time in the world.
Or at least we would if we were pulling our weight.
Unfortunately, our paltry military spending amounts to just 1.37% of GDP, and the Liberal government’s promise to hit 2% in 2032 is a joke. By 2032, the world could look very different – and possibly much worse – if we don’t work with our allies to hold the authoritarian states at bay.
Our small military budget also means that any effort to rebuild our national defence will require immense resources.
If we were to double our military budget, we would be spending an additional $41 billion per year. Some of that could be covered by freezing/cutting spending in other federal departments, but it’s unlikely that any government would be willing to offset such a large increase in the military budget with equal spending cuts elsewhere.
Practically, this means any large-scale military buildup means we likely need to keep running budget deficits in the near term.
That would be a controversial move, but so would the alternative.
How would Canada’s allies – particularly countries like Poland, the U.K., and the U.S. feel watching us continue to be a relative freeloader on defence so we can balance our budget, all while those countries run budget deficits and exceed the 2% NATO target?
How could we call ourselves a good and reliable ally if we made that choice?
And how should our citizens feel?
Fundamentally, the number one job of the federal government is to protect the citizens of our nation. That means ensuring we have a strong national defence.
What is the point in balancing the budget on the backs of the military if our country could face a large-scale war? Any short-term budget balancing at the expense of military readiness would be pointless anyway, given that entering into a war unprepared means undertaking a desperate and disorganized buildup that would see our country trying to buy every piece of equipment we can at a time when prices of military goods would surge through the roof.
And let’s be honest here. Any large-scale war would be accompanied by a significant global economic crisis, meaning it’s unlikely anyone would be balancing their budget in that case.
Of course, it’s always possible there won’t be a war at all. I have never wanted to be more wrong about where I think the world is headed. But even if we avoid the worst, Canada’s lack of a strong national defence is inexcusable and has gone on for far too long. And a global war isn’t the only threat we face from having an underfunded military.
Our allies are losing patience with us which could lead to our trade-dependent economy. Natural disasters are far tougher to handle without a robust military. And because the world is unpredictable, having a critical mass of well-trained military personnel and up-to-date equipment is never a bad idea.
This will be costly. We need to spend at least $40 billion more per year on the military, and probably closer to $60 billion more. We need to get comfortable with producing tanks, drones, and artillery, and we need to be comfortable with the kind of pro-freedom, pro-Canada, pro-NATO messaging that once inspired people to join the military, rather than the guilt-ridden messaging that is currently pushing people away.
As much as we may wish to balance the budget, it cannot be our top priority right now. Our top priority must be restoring Canada’s national defences.
Spencer Fernando
