We have a strong aerospace industry and a vibrant tech-sector. We should leverage these strengths to become a leader in military drone production.
Let’s take a moment and look at two countries, both of which have a population around 40 million.
The first country – Ukraine – is on track to produce 4 million drones per year, even as their economy and workforce are ravaged by Russia’s invasion:
“Ukraine is not only meeting its own defense needs by ramping up production and advancing technology, but it’s also developing some of the world’s most sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Two key challenges stand in the way of even greater expansion—but the country is racing to overcome them.
A study by the Kyiv School of Economics and the defense cluster Brave1 reveals that Ukraine’s drone production has grown a thousandfold. In 2022, the country produced around 3,000 to 5,000 drones (crucially, domestic production, not imports). By 2023, production had surged to 300,000 units annually across various types of drones. For 2024, production capacity is projected to reach up to 4 million units.”
The second country – Canada – is on track to purchase 11 drones produced in the United States that will be ready by the year 2028:
“Canada’s first combat drones have now entered production, though the remotely piloted aircraft will require years of testing and significant modifications before the first units are delivered in 2028.
The federal government announced last December(opens in a new tab) it would acquire 11 of the MQ-9B drones from manufacturer General Atomics at a cost of $2.49 billion.
The first two Canadian drones are currently on the company’s production line in San Diego, Calif., and will be used as test vehicles starting in 2026, National Defence spokesperson Andrée-Anne Poulin confirmed in an email to CTV News.”
Now, this comparison is not exactly apples-to-apples. The MQ-9B drones Canada is purchasing are quite large and expensive per unit, while many of Ukraine’s drones are smaller.
However, remember that Canada isn’t purchasing the MQ-9B drones in addition to domestic production of lethal military drones.
The MQ-9B drones are all we have, and we don’t even have them yet.
The article refers to the MQ-9B’s as “Canada’s first combat drones.”
That should give you an idea of how far behind we are.
And while Canada dithers, Ukraine – despite the immense pressure being placed on their nation – is racing ahead with increasingly advanced drone production, unveiling the ‘Peklo’ drone missile:
Now, some will say that comparing Canada and Ukraine makes no sense, given that Ukraine is fighting an existential war, while Canada is ‘at peace.’
But this only serves to make Canada’s lack of military drone production even more embarrassing.
Ukraine’s per capita GDP is roughly $5,000 USD, while Canada’s per capita GDP is about 10 times higher at $53,000.
As mentioned previously, Ukraine’s economy has been ravaged by war, a portion of the country is occupied by Russian troops, and many people who would be working are instead on the frontlines.
What this means is that Canada could easily produce 4 million or 5 million drones per year with an investment that – as a percentage of our economy – would be almost unnoticeable. And the whole point of producing weapons while ‘at peace’ (we aren’t really at peace given the fact that China & Russia see themselves as already being at war with the West), is that you are ready when you go from being at peace to being at war, rather than desperately trying to catch up.
Remember, China is producing millions of commercial drones (with over 70% of the global market), meaning they could easily ramp up their already significant lethal drone production at any moment. China is also partnering with Russia when it comes to military drone projects:
Russia has established a weapons programme in China to develop and produce long-range attack drones for use in the war against Ukraine, according to two sources from a European intelligence agency and documents reviewed by Reuters.
IEMZ Kupol, a subsidiary of Russian state-owned arms company Almaz-Antey, has developed and flight-tested a new drone model called Garpiya-3 (G3) in China with the help of local specialists, according to one of the documents, a report that Kupol sent to the Russian defence ministry earlier this year outlining its work.
Leverage our strengths
At a time when Canada has a massive hill to climb to become ready to defend ourselves and contribute to our allies, lethal drone production is one area in which we can leverage pre-existing strengths. We have a strong aerospace sector, and our tech sector is quite robust, having benefitted from talented people coming to Canada from around the world and our well-educated population.
With investment from the government, we can combine these strengths to build a vibrant domestic industry producing military drones. And we have the benefit of being close allies with Ukraine, meaning we can learn from their best practices and their battle-tested experience. If we got production lines up and running rapidly, we could even provide Ukraine with a significant portion of the drones we produce, while adding to our stockpile at the same time.
Another benefit of becoming a world leader in military drone production would be that it helps to address some of the weaknesses of our country when it comes to building up our military. With recruitment lagging after years of underinvestment and years of government rhetoric that seemed almost designed to dissuade those most likely to join the Armed Forces, we can – in the short term – fill some of the personnel gap with drones.
That’s not a long-term fix (we need to boost recruitment and get back in touch with our proud military history as Canadians), but in the short term, a powerful lethal drone industry gives us the ability to contribute immediately without needing a massive expansion in personnel. And even when considering manpower shortages, the war in Ukraine has demonstrated that young people skilled at playing video games can leverage those skills to be effective drone pilots:
Whether we like it or not, drones are going to play a significant role in the future of war. In fact, they play a significant role in the present. Right now, Canada is woefully unprepared for conflict, and we must address our severe vulnerability as soon as possible. Investing in the construction of a massive domestic military drone industry is one of the best ways we can start to rebuild our national defence and show our allies that we are taking our responsibilities seriously again.
Spencer Fernando
