Whether you like the incoming U.S. President or not, it’s clear that he is using a bullying style of leadership. Giving in to threats will only drive further demands for submission.
With Canada facing a rising threat of massive tariffs being imposed by our closest ally, Ontario Premier Doug Ford is both sounding the alarm and calling for Canada to show resolve in response.
Speaking to the press following a virtual ‘Team Canada’ meeting with the Premiers and the Prime Minister, Ford called for Canada to retaliate against the U.S. if tariffs are imposed on our country, including raising the possibility of cutting off energy exports to our southern neighbours:
Ford’s overall comments were quite nuanced. He criticized the Prime Minister for comments chastizing the choice of the U.S. electorate, noting such remarks are not helpful at this time. He also avoided going down the route of rolling over for Trump and instead counselled retaliation.
This is the right way to address the threat Canada is facing.
Whether you like Trump or not, it’s clear that he is using a bullying style of leadership. He takes a status quo situation, introduces a new threat that would worsen things, and then offers to withdraw that threat unless he gets what he wants. In the case of 25% tariffs, such a policy would make things far worse for both Canada and the United States, driving up prices in both countries.
As you can see in the chart below, the Canadian and U.S. economies are massively integrated. In fact, it makes more sense to look at North-South economic linkages within North America than it does to look at Canada vs the U.S.:
“No one is even talking about the fact
that on top of 5,000,000 barrels of oil per day
Canada exports electricity to the USA
This could get REAL UGLY, REAL QUICK”
As a result, while Canada has a lot to lose from the imposition of a blanket 25% tariff, so does the U.S.
And by making it known that Canada will impose costs in response to tariffs, Doug Ford is indicating that the U.S. won’t be able to just roll over Canada.
Now, I know some reading this will say that Canada can easily avoid the tariffs by “just securing the border and stopping the flow of drugs.”
The problem with that is that even when Donald Trump was President of the United States for the first time, the U.S. struggled to stem the flow of drugs and criminals over their border with Mexico. Canada and the U.S. already closely cooperate at the border. So, while some progress could perhaps be made, the idea that the problem can just be ‘solved’ immediately is irrational.
And this assumes that Trump is being honest about his demands.
Given the fact that he has perhaps the most tenuous relationship with the truth of any American politician we’ve seen in a very long time, it would be unwise to assume that giving him what he claims to want will halt the tariffs.
What if what he really wants is to impose the tariffs?
What if the tariffs, not some other issue, is the end goal here?
After all, while Trump has changed his mind on virtually every political issue during his life, the two things he’s never wavered on are his love of tariffs and his admiration for Russia. Why would we expect him to change now?
What if we panic and cave to his demands only for further demands to be made? And then further demands, and further demands…
No, the smart thing to do is to show resolve now. We must show that we will not be walked over and that the imposition of tariffs on Canada will result in the imposition of tariffs on the United States.
Trump is risking significant damage to the Canada-US trading alliance, one of the greatest economic alliances in world history. At a time when the U.S. should be deepening economic integration with Canada, the E.U., Japan, and other democracies while cutting off their ties to authoritarian states like China, Trump is instead focusing his attention on damaging U.S. ties to their allies.
It’s unfortunate that the U.S. is going in this direction, but that is up to them. We don’t control it. What we do control is how we respond, and if we want to avoid further bullying in the future, we must show strength and promise serious economic retaliation, while also reaching out to the many American businesspeople and politicians who rightfully understand what a disaster Trump’s tariff policy would be. Canada has many friends in America, and we need to reach out to them and work with them, while also making clear that Canada will respond if Trump goes ahead with tariffs.
Doug Ford gets that, and hopefully, the rest of Team Canada gets it too.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – Twitter
