It’s not about the border. It’s about Donald Trump’s desire to erase Canada’s sovereignty.
With Canada facing the threat of 25% tariffs from the United States, some on the right side of the political spectrum in Canada appear to believe everything will be fine if we just give Trump what he wants.
“Just fix the border,” they say.
Unfortunately, this is deeply naive.
Saying “just fix the border” assumes Donald Trump is being honest, which is an assumption at odds with reality.
Furthermore, the ‘border’ concern expressed by Trump appears to be merely the ‘justification’ for doing what he intends to do no matter what:
Impose 25% tariffs on Canada.
In fact, while speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF), Trump gave a further indication that imposing tariffs on Canada – and many other nations – is the centrepiece of his economic program and worldview as he launched another rhetorical assault on Canadian sovereignty:
“NEW: US president Donald Trump, once again, talks about Canada becoming an American state and doubles down on the idea that the US doesn’t need Canadian made vehicle vehicles, lumber, or oil and gas.”
Trump is also claiming that foreign businesses will be hit with tariffs unless they shift production to the United States:
“My message to every business in the world is very simple.
Come make your product in America, and we will give you among the lowest taxes of any nation on earth. But if you don’t make your product in America, you will have to pay a tariff.”
Trump is also obsessed with the period (late 1800s) when he says the United States funded their government largely with tariff revenue. Trump claims – falsely – that the U.S. was at its richest during that time.
This appears to be one of Trump’s few deeply-held beliefs. He really does think that he can use tariffs to replace U.S. domestic revenue sources, despite the fact that the numbers simply don’t add up:
“Of course, this is unfeasible given the fact the U.S. collected roughly $2.5 trillion in revenue from individual income taxes, $1.8 trillion from payroll taxes, and $490 billion from corporate taxes compared to $96 billion from tariffs in fiscal year 2023.
Even a blanket 25% tariff on all foreign goods would bring in just $990 billion, far short of matching domestic revenue sources for the U.S. Furthermore, the whole point of imposing tariffs is to reduce imports and incentivize domestic production, meaning that $990 billion doesn’t account for reduced imports and the economic impact of inflation, which would cause the actual tariff haul to be smaller.”
Notice also that Trump didn’t mention the border at all in his recent diatribe against Canada:
“Donald Trump uses a speech to the WEF to once again threaten Canada. Become a state or pay tariffs.”
Clearly, it’s not about the border.
And if it was, Canada would have a stronger case that the U.S. should be subsidizing us, given the vast quantities of drugs and guns that enter Canada from the U.S.
Trump is also objectively wrong on the trade deficit. He keeps upping the number, claiming it’s $200 or $250 billion when it is actually under $100 billion. Some may call this ‘negotiating’ or ‘trolling,’ but it’s simply lying.
Exaggerating a trade deficit to justify an economic attack on your neighbour is an act of dishonesty.
Most hypocritical of all, the U.S. has a trade deficit with Canada because they purchase vast quantities of heavy crude from our nation – a massive discount compared to the world price. This benefits the U.S. at Canada’s expense.
It may not be convenient to acknowledge this.
There are clearly many people who are afraid to confront or criticize Donald Trump, and instead prefer to go along with his lies and submit to him.
But we must speak the truth.
Donald Trump is preparing to inflict a level of economic damage on Canada that is on par with what would happen if we were plunged into a significant war.
He is doing this based on lies, based on his incorrect view of how trade works, and based on his desire to replace domestic sources of government revenue with foreign sources.
And he’s doing this even though Canada and the U.S. have a free trade agreement that was re-negotiated at Trump’s request in his first term, and which remains in place.
To get around this, he needs to claim there are national security reasons for imposing tariffs on Canada. Claiming the border is the reason for U.S. concern gives him the power to bypass the free trade deal. Thus, no amount of action at the border would be enough, since it’s not actually about the border, it’s about using executive power to get away with violating trade agreements and damaging Canada’s economy. In fact, the more our leaders try to placate Trump on the border, the more we feed into his use of ‘national security concerns’ to violate our trade deal.
That’s why the attitude of trying to appease Trump is ineffective.
Instead, Canada must show strength.
And we can best show strength by promising powerful retaliatory tariffs, using emergency legislation to begin constructing pipelines to sell our energy to other nations, and by invoking the defence production act to initiate a large-scale military buildup.
We can’t control whether Donald Trump chooses to lie. We can’t control the fact that agreements signed with him mean nothing if he changes his mind on a whim.
What we can control is how we respond, and now is the time for Canada to respond with strength and determination, rather than weakness and cowardice.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – Twitter
