Conservative Lead Steady As Trudeau Trails

Pair of poll aggregators show Liberals trailing in both seat count and popular vote.

Two poll trackers show the Conservatives maintaining their lead over the Liberals, with a steady lead in both the popular vote and seat projections.

CBC poll tracker

According to the CBC poll tracker, the Conservatives have 36.0% of the national vote, ahead of the Liberals at 29.8%. The NDP have 15.1%, while the Greens are at 10.7%. The BQ is at 4.3%, while the People’s Party is at 2.5%.

The poll tracker gives the Conservatives 168 seats, two short of a majority. The range for the Conservatives is between 123 seats and 217 seats.

The Liberals are at 123 seats, with a range of 64 seats to 185.

The Conservatives are given a 46% probability of winning a majority, and a 28% probability of winning a minority government.

The Liberals have an 18% probability of winning a minority government, and a 8% chance of winning a majority.

338Canada/Macleans projection

A second aggregator shows the Conservatives in the lead as well.

The 338Canada/Macleans projection gives the Conservatives 35.5% of the popular vote, with a range of 30.7% and 40.3%.

The Liberals are at 30.7%, with a range between 26.0% and 35.4%.

The NDP is at 15.3%, with a range of 12.4% and 18.2%.

The Greens are at 11.2%, with a range between 9.3% and 13.1%.

When it comes to the seat projections, the Conservatives are at 164.5 seats, with a range of 113.7 and 215.3 seats.

The Liberals are at 124.8 seats, with a range of 69.4 and 180.2 seats.

The NDP is at 26.7 seats, with a range of 14 seats and 39.4 seats.

The Bloc is at 13.5 seats.

The Greens are at 7.7 seats.

The People’s Party is at 0.4 seats, suggesting that it’s a question of whether Bernier will win his seat at this point.

Macleans notes that of the Liberals 125 projected seats, 90 of them are in Quebec and Ontario, meaning the Liberals face a near total wipe out in the rest of the country.

What we are seeing is that the Liberals loss of support following first the India trip debacle and then the SNC-Lavalin PMO Scandal, in addition to the attrition from their repeated broken promises and tax hikes, has reset the political baseline, with Liberal support stuck at a lower level.

Still, the Liberals have their media bailout, $7 billion slush fund, and foreign influence, in addition to possible Elections Canada bias all skewing the board in their favour, meaning that nothing can be taken for granted. The corrupt government won’t go down without a fight.

Spencer Fernando

Photo – Twitter