The Liberals are the biggest beneficiary of the NDP slide.
A new Mainstreet Research poll shows the NDP collapsing to fourth place, trailing the Green Party and facing the prospect of a total wipeout.
It’s also bad news for the Conservatives.
The Liberals appear to be the biggest beneficiaries of the NDP collapse, with their support reaching 37.5% among decided and leaning voters. The Conservatives trail with 34%.
The Greens are in third with 10.8%, while the NDP has fallen to a mere 8.4%.
At those support levels, the NDP faces the prospect of losing nearly all of their seats.
The regional breakdowns in this poll – which it should be emphasized is just one poll out of many – is also bad news for the Conservatives.
BC – Conservatives 37%, Liberals 25%, Greens 18%, NDP 13%, PPC 5%
Alberta – Conservatives 63%, Liberals 20%, Greens 8%, NDP 4%, PPC 4%
MB/Sask – Conservatives 51%, Liberals 24%, NDP 11%, Greens 8%, PPC 5%
Ontario – Liberals 45%, Conservatives 30%, Greens 10%, NDP 8%, PPC 5%
Quebec – Liberals 40%, Conservatives 21%, Bloc 16%, Greens 9%, NDP 9%, PPC 4%
Atlantic – Liberals 49, Conservatives 29%, Greens 12%, NDP 8%, PPC 1%
A few thoughts about this poll.
First, the Liberal lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada is a bit of an outlier compared to most other polls, which show the Liberals and Conservatives within the margin of error. The Conservative lead in BC is also larger than in most other polls.
This is the worst poll the NDP has seen in sometime, and though it may be slightly underestimating their support, the fact is that they have had brutally bad momentum for a long-time, and it’s quite possible that the Greens are ahead of the NDP as Jagmeet Singh’s struggles continue.
Another factor is the PPC. At 5% nationwide, the People’s Party would be unlikely to win any seats – aside from Bernier’s – but could be the difference between a Conservative minority, or a Liberal minority, or even Liberal majority if the Ontario & Atlantic numbers were replicated on election day. With many Ontario ridings being closely contested, 5% will make a big difference.
Of course, nobody is owed a vote, and the Conservatives need to compete for votes like anyone else. That said, it’s quite possible the People’s Party vote could be larger than the margin between the Conservatives & Liberals in many ridings.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube
