FORUM POLL: Conservatives Lead

If election were held today, Forum predicts Conservative minority government.

A new Forum Research poll gives the Conservatives a slight lead over the Liberals as the election campaign begins.

Here are the national numbers:

Conservatives – 36.3%

Liberals – 32.4%

Greens – 11.6%

NDP – 8.6%

PPC – 4.9%

Bloc – 4.1%

Based on those numbers, Forum also compiled seat projections:

Conservatives – 168

Liberals – 138

NDP – 16

Bloc – 11

Greens – 5

PPC – 0

If – and of course it’s all hypothetical over a month from election day – those results were what ends up happening, it would create a very interesting scenario.

The NDP has said they won’t prop up a Conservative minority government. However, the NDP and Liberal seat count wouldn’t add up to a majority, and the Greens have not been clear on who they would support, calling both the Liberal and Conservative climate plans unacceptable.

Meanwhile, the Bloc would be highly unlikely to prop up a Liberal or Conservative government, meaning the Conservatives, being just two seats short of a majority, would likely be able to tenuously govern, albeit with the government poised to fall at any moment.

Still, it’s early on, and this is just one poll. There’s a long way to go until any real votes are cast.

Spencer Fernando

Photo – Twitter