How would people react if O’Toole won more votes but MacKay became party leader?
A new Mainstreet Research survey of Conservative Party Members indicates that there could be a very unusual end to the CPC leadership race.
When support from three hypothetical ballots is added up, Erin O’Toole wins 53% of the total vote. MacKay wins 47%. This of course assumes that Derek Sloan is eliminated on the first ballot and Leslyn Lewis is eliminated on the second.
While MacKay leads on the first and second ballot, he never gets to majority support, because Lewis and Sloan voters are more likely to shift their support to O’Toole.
As a result, O’Toole gets more actual support.
Yet, since the CPC uses a points system, which allocates 100 points to each riding and gives those points out based on a candidates vote percentage within the riding, it is possible for a candidate to win on points (thus winning the leadership), while getting fewer votes.
If this takes place and MacKay wins in that manner, there could be deepening of the divides in the CPC.
Currently, when second and third ballot support is added up, it appears as if O’Toole will do well in the Conservative heartland, particularly in rural BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and rural/suburban Ontario. By contrast, MacKay appears to have more support in the East, in areas with fewer conservatives.
However, the party point system means that even if O’Toole gets tons of support in – for example – Alberta, each individual vote would proportionately count for less than fewer votes for MacKay in the East.
Of course, this may go the other way, as MacKay could win some landslides in his home province, Atlantic Canada, and Quebec, where extra votes wouldn’t count for much either.
That said, if this scenario comes to pass, and O’Toole gets more votes yet MacKay wins the leadership, there could be even more of a growth in the sentiment of Western Alienation, unless the Conservative leadership swiftly moves to show loyalty and support for Western Canada and the Canadian energy sector.
This is also all hypothetical.
It’s just one poll, and it’s always possible there could be big surprises in store – perhaps Lewis or Sloan (or both) doing far better than this poll predicts.
Also, Mainstreet Research has recently shown the Trudeau Liberals with a huge lead federally, something which contradicts most other surveys showing the Liberals having lost support recently.
With the Conservative leadership result coming relatively soon, we will not have to speculate much longer.
Photo – YouTube