Is public opinion starting to solidify against the Trudeau government?
The Liberals were hoping for a reset yesterday with their cabinet shuffle, but that’s not how things turned out.
Instead, much of the Canadian political world was focused on an Abacus poll showing the Liberals a full ten points behind the Conservatives.
The poll showed the Conservatives at 38% nationwide, with the Liberals far behind at 28%. The Liberals trailed in every part of the country except Atlantic Canada, though even in that traditional stronghold they led the Conservatives by just 1 point in the survey.
When polls show a significant shift in public sentiment – most nationwide surveys gave the Conservatives around a 5 point lead rather than 10 points – the wisest course of action is to assume it is an outlier.
But now, another poll shows the same devastating results for the Liberals, indicating this is more than just some statistical noise.
Liberals trail Conservatives by substantial margin in Leger poll
According to the latest Leger survey, the Conservatives are supported by 37% of Canadians, far ahead of the Liberals who are at 28%.
The NDP is at 17%, while the Bloc, Greens, and PPC are at 7%, 5%, and 2% respectively.
Federal Polling:
CPC: 37% (+3)
LPC: 28% (-5)
NDP: 17% (-1)
BQ: 7% (-1)
GPC: 5% (+3)
PPC: 2% (-3)
Others: 1%Leger / July 10, 2023 / n=1512 / Online
(% Change With 2021 Federal Election)
Check out federal details on @338Canada at: https://t.co/kg1xi0UiUP pic.twitter.com/0U89DVuK8Y
— Polling Canada (@CanadianPolling) July 27, 2023
The Leger poll largely tracks with the Abacus poll, aside from some regional differences. The Liberals are doing better in B.C. than most other polls show, as they lead the Conservatives 34% – 32%.
However, the Conservatives are doing better in Quebec than in the Abacus poll, pulling 25% to be just short of the Liberals at 28% and the Bloc at 31%.
In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives lead the Liberals 39% to 30%, very similar results to the Abacus poll.
This is what I get based on the Leger poll with CPC +9
Just short of a majority, mostly because of BC pic.twitter.com/nOdZe3oCdd
— Bryan Breguet (@2closetocall) July 27, 2023
Has something shifted?
One poll can be dismissed. Two polls could potentially be outliers. And yet, it’s hard to ignore the sense that something is starting to shift.
We are seeing more and more establishment news outlets, businesses, and banks start to openly discuss Canada’s ongoing economic stagnation and even offering some carefully-written criticism of Canada’s recent surge in immigration.
At the same time, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre continues to gain name recognition among Canadians, with people realizing that Poilievre’s bookish demeanor and focus on finances is a far cry from the crazy ‘far-right’ caricature of him the Liberals have tried to paint.
When things are bad, people want change
We could even simplify things further, since complex political situations often come down to a few ‘simple’ fundamentals.
People are falling behind economically. On a per capita basis, Canadians are now getting poorer. Everything costs more, our taxes are higher, and our government services are worse. Crime is up. The country is more divided. Our allies are increasingly tired of our lectures that aren’t backed up with real commitments.
At a certain point, the public starts to hold the sitting government responsible for the state of things, and when the state of things is bad, people will look to make a change, and as the only party capable of both offering real change and having a chance to win, the Conservatives are the main beneficiary of the desire for a new direction.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube
