The taboo against ruthless territorial conquest has been under unprecedented assault since February of 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A U.S. invasion of Greenland would wipe the taboo away, making the world far more dangerous for Canada and our remaining allies.
Keep your head down, or speak up.
That’s the choice confronting a myriad of nations as the United States heads in a more authoritarian direction under the leadership of Donald Trump. What once seemed unthinkable – the United States seizing territory from an ally – is now looking more and more probable, as the Trump Administration escalates its aggressive rhetoric toward Greenland. The White House recently released a slickly-produced video highlighting U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s recent trip to Greenland – a trip that was widely condemned in both Greenland and Denmark:
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the United States “has to” take Greenland, and has refused to rule out the use of military force:
“BREAKING: Donald Trump says he is “absolutely” serious about annexing Greenland:
“We’ll get Greenland. Yeah, 100%,” Trump told NBC News.
He added that while there’s a “good possibility that we could do it without military force,” he doesn’t “take anything off the table.”
This. Is. Insane.”
It is essential to understand what this means. The United States is openly musing about annexing territory from one of its allies, and will not rule out using the military to do so. If the U.S. did use military force, that would mean U.S. military personnel killing members of the Danish Armed Forces. Denmark is a NATO member, as is the United States, meaning a U.S. invasion of Greenland would likely bring about the end of NATO.
The thought of this occurring is so destabilizing that many react by not reacting at all. Many countries are choosing not to speak out in defence of Denmark and Greenland, in the hope that the issue will just ‘go away’ somehow. But that is unlikely to work.
Staying silent will backfire.
The notion of invading Greenland is deeply unpopular in the United States, with most surveys showing a roughly 70-30 split against the idea. Notably, those surveys don’t poll people on the idea of Americans killing NATO allied soldiers to seize territory. Were it framed in such a manner, opposition would increase further.
Thus, it is in the interest of those who oppose the annexation of Greenland to speak out against such a potential move by the United States. And Canada should be among the countries speaking out.
National values & national self-interest
Canada has long upheld the taboo against territorial conquest. In conjunction with our democratic allies and multinational institutions, Canada has sought to end the long history of nations seizing territory by force. Even when Canada and our allies have participated in military interventions – Afghanistan, for example – there was never any thought of seizing territory. Afghanistan was never going to become a Canadian province or American state, despite the temporary presence of Canadian and American troops on Afghan territory. There was an understanding that the best way to deepen ties between two peoples and two nations was to help strengthen democratic institutions, protect the rule of law, and increase trade.
This didn’t always work, and it wasn’t perfect, but it was based on a foundation of respect for national identity and sovereignty, and the overall framework of defending territorial integrity helped ensure that the period following the Second World War was the most prosperous and peaceful in human history.
Of course, dictators like Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China were never fully on board. They both obsess over seizing new territory by force and expanding their national borders. Thus, it is in their interest to bring about an end to the taboo against territorial conquest. Putin is attempting to do so now through his illegal and brutal invasion of Ukraine. Xi may try to do the same in Taiwan.
And Donald Trump gives every indication of seeing himself as more aligned with leaders like Putin & Xi, and thus also appears keen on ending the taboo against expanding national borders by force. Hence the ongoing threats against Canada, Greenland, and Panama.
Now, some would counsel silence from Canada at this time. They would argue that it’s better for our leaders to stay quiet about America’s threats against Greenland and hope Canada won’t be noticed. This would be a bet on the idea that America either won’t annex Greenland, or that doing so would be so controversial and resource-intensive that it would make the annexation of Canada even more impractical.
The problem with this line of thinking is that if Canada stays quiet on threats against Greenland, we would lose the trust of many of our European allies. Many European nations are deeply disturbed by the rhetoric coming from the Trump Administration. In fact, Europe’s two most powerful nations – Germany and France – have both issued statements pushing back on U.S. threats:
“Germany and France have warned Donald Trump against threatening Greenland, after the US president-elect refused to rule out using military force to seize Denmark’s autonomous territory.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said “the principle of the inviolability of borders applies to every country… no matter whether it’s a very small one or a very powerful one”.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said “there is obviously no question that the European Union would let other nations of the world attack its sovereign borders”.”
This is a big deal in Europe. And so, were Canada to stay silent now, it would be far less likely that powerful European nations would speak out on our behalf when U.S. attention turns back our way.
Further, consider what would happen if the United States did end up annexing Greenland by force. Americans would lose many of its allies, there would be significant internal political dissent, and there would no doubt be sanctions applied against the U.S.
Donald Trump likely wouldn’t mind that, as he seems determined to alienate as many of America’s allies as possible and break U.S. trade ties with others, but the short-term and long-term damage would be immense. The idea of Americans attacking NATO troops would also be normalized – at least in the minds of a critical mass of Americans – by a successful invasion of Greenland.
That means the next invasion would be far easier from a political and psychological perspective. Europe would be defeated and demoralized. The U.S. would be emboldened to seize more territory. And their next target would likely be Canada.
Viewed from this perspective, you can see how a successful U.S. invasion of Greenland would make a U.S. invasion of Canada more probable. But if pressure can be brought to bear on the United States now, and if that pressure dissuades them from invading Greenland, it makes the annexation of Canada far less likely.
Practical steps
If Canada were to take a strong stand with our European allies against U.S. threats toward Greenland, there are some practical steps we can take.
First, reach out to France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and any other European nations willing to speak out, and issue a joint statement expressing our support for Denmark and Greenland’s territorial integrity. The statement doesn’t even have to be aggressive towards the U.S., as everyone will know exactly what we’re talking about if we mention supporting the inviolability of national borders.
Second, invite French & German ships to spend some time in Canadian ports, and start holding military exercises in the North with those allied nations. The United Kingdom could also be invited. And of course, we would also invite Denmark. The goal would be to show that we are serious about defending the North, and that we have allies willing to help us do so. This would send a clear message – and again, do so without directly antagonizing the U.S.
Third, Canada should clearly and calmly express that a U.S. invasion of Greenland would be met with Canadian economic sanctions against the United States. While the economic impact of those sanctions would likely be limited, it would be a way for Canada to draw a line in the sand and indicate that we wouldn’t just look the other way.
It is deeply unfortunate and indeed tragic that we even need to consider this. But this is the reality we live in, and we must respond to it. Standing with Denmark and Greenland aligns with Canadian values and aligns with our national self-interest. The three steps mentioned above provide a clear framework for how that can be done.
Spencer Fernando
Photo – YouTube
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